SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Slightly Longer
Written by Tim Triplett
August 8, 2019
Lead times for steel delivery are slightly longer for hot rolled, galvanized and plate steels following price increases announced by the major mills. The average lead time for hot rolled is now approaching four and a half weeks, cold rolled nearly six weeks, and coated steels around six and a half weeks. Plate lead times also are slightly longer than reported two weeks ago.
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the order activity at the mills, and the less likely they are to discount prices.
Hot rolled lead times now average 4.36 weeks, up from 3.88 weeks a month ago. Hot rolled lead times were just slightly longer at this time last year at 4.60 weeks.
The average cold rolled lead time saw a slight lengthening in the first two weeks of July, but has shortened back down to 5.75 weeks, about where it was a month ago before the prices increases took hold. The CR lead time was about a week longer in the high-demand period at this time last year.
The average lead time for galvanized has extended to 6.67 weeks, up from 6.22 weeks in SMU’s early July canvass of the market. Galvanized lead times were about a half week longer in early August 2018. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is little changed at 6.44 weeks.
Lead times for spot orders of plate steel have also gotten longer following the price increase announced last month. Lead times for plate now average 4.67 weeks, up from 4.11 weeks in mid-July.
“Lead times have stretched out a bit more than normal, but I’m not sure for how long,” said one buyer. “Lead times are still a little shorter than normal,” observed another, “but what is considered normal anymore?”
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.
SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.
Service centers: Mill orders down marginally in May
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a third straight month in May, but only marginally.