SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Slightly Longer

August 8, 2019

Lead times for steel delivery are slightly longer for hot rolled, galvanized and plate steels following price increases announced by the major mills. The average lead time for hot rolled is now approaching four and a half weeks, cold rolled nearly six weeks, and coated steels around six and a half weeks. Plate lead times also are slightly longer than reported two weeks ago.

Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the order activity at the mills, and the less likely they are to discount prices.

Hot rolled lead times now average 4.36 weeks, up from 3.88 weeks a month ago. Hot rolled lead times were just slightly longer at this time last year at 4.60 weeks.

The average cold rolled lead time saw a slight lengthening in the first two weeks of July, but has shortened back down to 5.75 weeks, about where it was a month ago before the prices increases took hold. The CR lead time was about a week longer in the high-demand period at this time last year.

The average lead time for galvanized has extended to 6.67 weeks, up from 6.22 weeks in SMU’s early July canvass of the market. Galvanized lead times were about a half week longer in early August 2018. The current average lead time for spot orders of Galvalume is little changed at 6.44 weeks.

Lead times for spot orders of plate steel have also gotten longer following the price increase announced last month. Lead times for plate now average 4.67 weeks, up from 4.11 weeks in mid-July.

“Lead times have stretched out a bit more than normal, but I’m not sure for how long,” said one buyer. “Lead times are still a little shorter than normal,” observed another, “but what is considered normal anymore?”

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.