• Skip to main content

    Prices

    December 8, 2020

    CRU: Iron Ore Near $150 /dmt on Increasing Market Tightness

    Written by Erik Hedborg

    Iron ore surged in early-December as Vale’s lowered guidance fueled concerns about iron ore availability going into 2021. Short-term market tightness also contributed to the rise as Chinese demand remained strong, while seaborne supply has continued to struggle. On Tuesday, Dec. 8, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $147.0 /dmt, an increase of $15.5 /dmt w/w. 

    Last week, Chinese domestic HRC and rebar prices continued to march in opposite directions. While the HRC price rose by RMB120 /t w/w, the rebar price declined again by RMB60 /t. This precisely dictated the changes in supply-demand fundamentals. Given some BF maintenance, steel output dropped marginally last week. With quicker inventory drawdown, flat products demand lifted w/w, partly resulted from strong steel-containing goods exports. In contrast, steel long products demand dropped to the lowest level since late-August as temperatures dropped below the freezing point in many northern provinces. At current prices, Chinese steel margins are very high, so steelmakers kept operating intensively where possible. However, price decreases for steel long products over the last two weeks led some high-cost producers to conduct maintenance. This, coupled with stricter BF restrictions in Tangshan, resulted in lower surveyed BF capacity utilization. Having said that, steelmaking raw materials demand remained strong on the back of winter restocking. 

    Erik Hedborg

    Read more from Erik Hedborg

    Latest in Prices

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Nucor increases spot HR to $1,280/ton

    Nucor said on Monday, Nov. 2, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,280 per short ton (st) this week, up $10/st from last week. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,350/st, also up $10/st from a week earlier. Nucor continues to offer lead times of three to five weeks, according to its letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 27, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,305/st, up $15/st from the previous week.

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.

    SMU Price Ranges: Sheet and plate up, buyers see strength into ’27

    Sheet and plate prices continued to press higher this week as the current supply squeeze shows no signs of letting up even as contract season winds down and lead times tip into 2027. The historic rally marks a sharp reversal from last year, when the consensus was that prices would drift lower on uneven demand and new capacity. Steel buyers said it remains difficult to find a domestic mill with spot availability in a market that some said is tighter than in 2021, even if prices haven't spiraled as high as they did then. SMU's price assessment for spot hot-rolled (HR) coil stands at...