SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Negotiations: More of the Same
Written by Tim Triplett
April 1, 2021
No change to report in the latest Steel Market Update negotiations data. The dynamic between buyers and sellers remains virtually the same. “The mills don’t negotiate at all, and I don’t blame them one bit. Why should they negotiate when there isn’t enough tonnage to go around?” commented one respondent to SMU’s questionnaire this week.
The percentage of buyers who reported some mills willing to negotiate is in the single digits (see the charts below), where it has been since November for most flat rolled products. Price talks for plate are nearly as one-sided in the current environment, with steel prices at historic highs.
Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week puts the current benchmark price for hot rolled steel at a new record of $1,330 per ton ($66.50/cwt). Most buyers polled by SMU this week speculate that prices will continue to rise to $1,350-1,400 or more before peaking and beginning to correct perhaps sometime in April or May. Until then, the mills are expected to enjoy the dominant bargaining position.
Note: These negotiations data are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. To see an interactive history of our negotiations data, visit our website here.
By Tim Triplett, Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
Steelmaking raw material prices ease in July
The majority of steelmaking raw material prices declined in June, following the same trend seen in May, according to SMU’s latest analysis.
SMU price ranges: HR declines moderate. Are we near a bottom?
SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.
Some SMU Key Market Indicators improve, others remain near historic lows
SMU’s Key Market Indicators include data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and steel sheet and long products. They offer a snapshot of current sentiment and the near-term expected trajectory of the economy. All told, nine key indicators point lower, 16 are neutral, and 13 point higher. One thing worth noting: The nine indicators pointing lower are all lagging indicators. Many of those pointing upward are leading indicators.
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebound
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both saw improvement this week. Current sentiment ticked higher but remains near the four-year low seen earlier this month. Future Sentiment continues to indicate that buyers are optimistic for future business conditions.
SMU market survey results now available
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your […]