• Skip to main content

    Market Data

    SMU Energy Market Analysis through September

    Written by Brett Linton


    Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is please to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

    The Energy Information Administration’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. That big caveat aside, the increase in economic activity continues to contribute to rising energy use. EIA anticipates a balanced global oil market for the remainder of 2021. Crude oil and natural gas prices are forecast to remain steady through the remainder of the year. The EIA reported that over 90% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico went offline in late-August due to Hurricane Ida, resulting in a 0.3 million barrel per day decline in production down to 1.5 million barrels per day. Crude oil production is expected to gradually come back online during September. The EIA reports that U.S. regular gasoline prices averaged $3.16 per gallon in August, the highest monthly average price since October 2014. Increases reflect rising wholesale margins among relatively low inventories. 

    Brett Linton

    Read more from Brett Linton

    Latest in Market Data

    Metalformers grow more cautious in October

    Metalformers’ economic outlook softened in the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) October Business Conditions Report. Still, the bulk of respondents continued to expect stable conditions. The monthly survey of 80 metalforming companies in the US and Canada provides an economic indicator for manufacturing over the next three months. “While this month’s survey reflects increased caution about the near-term economic outlook, the energy and investment on display at FABTECH this week tell a broader story about our industry’s resilience,” commented Mark Getsay, PMA’s managing director. Participation at the event, Getsay said, “demonstrates metalformers’ continued commitment to investing in new technologies, developing their workforce and strengthening their competitiveness for the future.”

    AIA: Architecture business conditions weaken further in September

    Architecture firms reported weaker business conditions in September, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) release from the American Institute of Architects and Deltek. The share of firms reporting declining billings was the largest since May. The September ABI fell two and a half points from August to a four-month low of 44.7. The ABI has been in contraction for all but two months since August 2022, indicating continually weakening business conditions following the post-pandemic rally. The ABI is a typical leading indicator of nonresidential construction activity, leading construction spending by approximately 9–12 months.

    Steel market chatter this week

    The majority of buyers SMU polled this week expect prices to continue rising from here, supported by limited supply. Demand is said to be strong, with most remarking that it is stable to improving. Most say inventories are moving faster this year than last, attributed to tight supply, late mill deliveries, and generally leaner supply chains. Imports continue to appeal to many buyers on both price and availability, but lead times, tariffs, and other risks remain. Buyers are split on whether President Trump’s tariff policies are helping their businesses and whether they’re seeing manufacturing reshoring.

    Sheet and plate price gains accelerate as 2026 tons dry up

    Sheet and plate prices continue to push higher as mills charge a premium for what little spot tonnage remains for 2026, market participants said. SMU’s price assessment for hot-rolled (HR) coil now stands at $1,290 per short ton (st) on average, up $10/st week over week. HR price gains averaged $5/st w/w throughout July and August, with no changes in prices some weeks and gains of at most $15/st w/w. In September and October to date, in contrast, prices have increased every week—with the average gain at $11.25/st w/w and w/w gains as high as $20/st. Prices for cold-rolled and coated products continued to increase as well. SMU's price assessment for cold-rolled (CR) coil clocked in at...