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    CRU: COP26 Should Not Forget About Carbon Pricing

    Written by Jumana Saleheen


    By CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen and CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth

    There are no low-cost options when it comes to tackling climate change. Renewable energy is not cheaper than fossil-based power once the price of investment and storage are considered. Low-carbon energy will cost more. The only way to incentivize the world to shift to this more expensive low-carbon future is to make fossil fuels costlier, which means more carbon pricing.

    Latest in CRU

    CRU: Futures contract reaches record open interest as prices rise

    Open interest on CME Group’s hot-rolled (HR) coil futures contract typically builds throughout the month before dropping at the end of the month alongside contract settlement. Analysis in this report is based on an early month view of this open interest as well as prices. Notably, open interest for the HR coil contract is currently at a record high of 849,240 short tons (st) or 42,462 contracts.  Open interest is up 13.8% m/m and 66% higher from the 511,480 st of open interest a year ago. We have found that open interest often rises alongside higher physical prices and that has proven true in this current market environment. Physical prices continue to rise, supported by not only rising demand and domestic production issues, but also on government-restricted imports.

    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.