SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/media/k2/items/src/2215ed5d8a9c415bc0cd5c5c5d85ea2e.jpg)
Steel Mill Lead Times: Within a Week of Normal
Written by Tim Triplett
December 22, 2021
In line with the declining steel prices, lead times for spot orders from the mills continue to shorten with the average for hot rolled now below five weeks and cold rolled and galvanized now below eight weeks, based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday. Lead times for all products are the shortest they have been in 2021 and are comparable to where they were in September/October 2020. Lead times are a sign of activity at the mill level and are considered a leading indicator of finished steel prices.
Buyers polled by SMU this week reported mill lead times ranging from 3-9 weeks for hot rolled, 5-10 weeks for cold rolled, 5-11 weeks for galvanized, 8-10 weeks for Galvalume, and 4-6 weeks for plate.
The average lead time for hot rolled has declined to 4.92 weeks from 5.04 weeks in mid-December. Cold rolled lead times now average 7.53 weeks, a decline from 8.35 two weeks ago. Galvanized lead times dipped to 7.50 weeks from 8.19 weeks in the same period. The average Galvalume lead time remains about the same at 8.83 weeks.
Like sheet products, mill lead times for plate also continue to shorten. The average plate lead time moved down to 5.40 weeks from the 6.38 weeks seen in SMU’s market check two weeks ago.
To put those numbers in perspective, hot rolled lead times have averaged 4.59 weeks, cold rolled lead times 6.59 weeks and galvanized lead times 6.92 weeks in data gathered by SMU over the past decade. Therefore, lead times are now within a week of being what might be considered “normal” after a long period of historic highs.
By Tim Triplett, Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/tim-triplett.jpeg)
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
Steelmaking raw material prices ease in July
The majority of steelmaking raw material prices declined in June, following the same trend seen in May, according to SMU’s latest analysis.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU price ranges: HR declines moderate. Are we near a bottom?
SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
Some SMU Key Market Indicators improve, others remain near historic lows
SMU’s Key Market Indicators include data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and steel sheet and long products. They offer a snapshot of current sentiment and the near-term expected trajectory of the economy. All told, nine key indicators point lower, 16 are neutral, and 13 point higher. One thing worth noting: The nine indicators pointing lower are all lagging indicators. Many of those pointing upward are leading indicators.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebound
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both saw improvement this week. Current sentiment ticked higher but remains near the four-year low seen earlier this month. Future Sentiment continues to indicate that buyers are optimistic for future business conditions.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
SMU market survey results now available
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your […]