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    Hot Rolled Futures: Is Change Afoot?

    Written by Tim Stevenson


    SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and prior to that led the derivative trading efforts within the North American Cargill Metals business. You can learn more about Metal Edge at www.metaledgepartners.com. Tim can be reached at Tim@metaledgepartners.com for queries/comments/questions.

    The first chart we will look at this week is front month HRC futures. We’ve been on quite the roller coaster, with prices soaring in 2021 before starting, shall we say, a very intense correction. U.S. prices became completely unhinged relative to international price levels, which normally can only happen for a short period of time. We are seeing this relationship correct currently, with prices here declining rapidly.

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    Sheet and plate price gains accelerate as 2026 tons dry up

    Sheet and plate prices continue to push higher as mills charge a premium for what little spot tonnage remains for 2026, market participants said. SMU’s price assessment for hot-rolled (HR) coil now stands at $1,290 per short ton (st) on average, up $10/st week over week. HR price gains averaged $5/st w/w throughout July and August, with no changes in prices some weeks and gains of at most $15/st w/w. In September and October to date, in contrast, prices have increased every week—with the average gain at $11.25/st w/w and w/w gains as high as $20/st. Prices for cold-rolled and coated products continued to increase as well. SMU's price assessment for cold-rolled (CR) coil clocked in at...