• Skip to main content

    Market Data

    CRU: U.S.-China Relations—Stuck in the Middle with You

    Written by CRU Americas


    By CRU Economist Veronika Akhmadieva and CRU Senior China Economist Henry Hao from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook, Feb. 14

    The last day of 2021 marked the end of the two-year period during which China agreed to increase imports of certain goods and services from the U.S. by a combined $200 billion. These targets have been missed by a wide margin. In this Insight we discuss what could come next for U.S.-China trade relations. It is possible that trade relations will either improve or get worse over the next year – but we think the U.S. political landscape means the most likely outcome is that they will remain “stuck” where they are, without significant new tariffs being introduced but also without existing ones being rolled back.

    Latest in Market Data

    Drilling activity holds in the US, moves higher in Canada

    The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US for a fourth straight week, while activity rose further in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared with this time last year, 57 more rigs are in operation today. Canada’s count rose by six to 226 rigs this week, gaining ground for a second consecutive week. Activity is up from the same week of 2025, with 39 more rigs operating today.

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.

    SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available

    The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Fall maintenance winding down, but key outages remain

    The busy fall maintenance season isn’t over yet. Mill outages have rolled along since September, squeezing an already tight sheet market heading into November and beyond. Another round of scheduled maintenance is approaching, with outages still ahead at North Star BlueScope, ArcelorMittal Calvert, and Nucor Berkeley. Much of the fall maintenance calendar is now in the rearview mirror. September and October outages included U.S. Steel’s Gary Works; Nucor’s Hickman, Decatur, Gallatin and Crawfordsville operations; Steel Dynamics’ Sinton and Columbus mills; Cleveland-Cliffs’ Dearborn hot strip mill; NLMK Portage; and Big River Steel Works.