Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 21, 2022
The SMU Steel Summit Conference was, at its inception, about two things: networking and forecasting.
Our conference aims to expand our attendees’ knowledge of the economy, the flat rolled and plate industries, and key market segments.
It’s also about getting to know one another better as companies look to improve or expand their relationships with suppliers/customers.
Our conference attracts decision makers from manufacturing, steel distribution, steel mills, trading companies, toll processors, logistic companies, and many more organizations associated with the greater steel community.
Keynote Speaker Dr. Alan Beaulieu has been associated with the SMU Steel Summit Conference for many years now. He addresses economic cycles and where we are within the economic cycle. He has an intimate knowledge of the industries and market segments because of his association with SMU as well as other organizations within the greater steel/manufacturing communities. This gives him a unique and experienced view of our industry.
ITR Economics wrote on one of their blogs recently, “It is important to note that the soft landing we are talking about is for the macroeconomy. … There will be many markets and companies that also experience soft landings, but there will also be some markets and companies that face hard landings – or recessions – in 2023. It is critical to know which future to expect for your business.”
Beaulieu will speak about what this means and what it means for your specific market segment at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. He will be speaking on Wednesday morning, August 24. Join him by registering for this year’s conference. You can do so by clicking here.
Attracting young people into the steel community continues to be a focus of SMU. As I speak to companies around the country, the lack of quality talent (in some cases the lack of any talent at all) is pressuring the industry. Some of the highest paying jobs available in the US are here in our industry. We want to make sure young people are aware of the opportunities. And once they are in the industry, we want to help recognize, nurture, mentor, educate, and motivate young executives (and potential executives).
Steel Market Update is supporting youth in the industry through the SMU NexGen Leadership Award and through a new organization we have been forming in conjunction with former NexGen Leadership Award winners, nominees, and other young executives from the industry. That new organization is being called the SMU NexGen Community.
The NexGen Leadership Award is now in its fourth year. We look to honor rising stars from within the greater flat rolled and plate steel communities. The candidate should be 35 or younger and recognized within their company as talented, motivated and innovative. Just plain exceptional will also do.
During the nomination process, you have an opportunity to explain to our judges what makes this individual unique within your organization. You can learn more about the award, nomination process, and how to nominate someone by going to: https://events.crugroup.com/smusteelsummit/awards
If you have questions please reach out Jill Waldman at Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com. She will do her best to answer any questions you might have.
Registrations are moving at a faster pace as we are now 122 days to go to the opening of the SMU Steel Summit Conference. We are closing in on 400 registered executives. SMU anticipates we will have 1,200 executives.
We will once again return to the Georgia International Convention Center, which is conveniently located next to the Atlanta International Airport. Here are the companies who have registered within the past few days. Those with an asterisk (*) registered more than one person: ArcelorMIttal Dofasco, Atkore International*, B.F. Steel de Mexico S.A, de C.V., Center for Automotive Research, Cooper Consolidated LLC, Cornerstone Building Brands*, Friedman Industries*, GFG Alliance, Hobart Aluminum, Illinois Tool Works (ITW)*, LB Steel, National Materials Co.*, National Material of Mexico, NS BlueScope Coated Products North America, Nucor*, Ohio Coatings Co.*, Pridgeon & Clay*, Reliance Metalcenter, Russel Metals*, Steel Warehouse*, Steelscape, Ternium USA Inc.*, U. S. Steel Corp., Worthington Industries.
Next week – on April 26-27 – we will host our virtual Introduction to Steel Hedging Workshop (previously known as Hedging 101). Considering the continued volatility in the flat-rolled steel markets, it is a good idea to be aware of how to mitigate price risks using the futures markets. You can learn more about our instructors, the program, costs to attend, and how to register by clicking here or going to https://events.crugroup.com/steel101/about-steel-hedging-101
Many of you are aware that Tim Triplett recently retired from Steel Market Update. We have hired one replacement who will be joining SMU at the end of this month. We are looking for another person to join our team. If you have journalism and steel experience, please contact Michael Cowden at Michael@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us associated with Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Founder
John Packard
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Final thoughts
Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)
Final thoughts
Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)
Final thoughts
Everybody has a plan… until they’ve dealt with volatility in the HRC market. While Mike Tyson’s original quote was about getting punched in the mouth, it’s unlikely the ex-champ has gone many pricing rounds with hot-rolled coil.
Final thoughts
Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.
Final thoughts
What a difference a month makes. In late March, it seemed like the US hot-rolled (HR) coil market was poised to cycle upward. Large buyers had re-entered the market and placed big orders earlier in the month. Several outages were underway or upcoming. And expectations were that lead times would continue to extend. Cliffs said […]