Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


This is bittersweet. With the 2022 SMU Steel Summit Conference to begin on Monday morning at 9 a.m. and our “official” opening slated for 1 p.m. Monday afternoon, it is time for me to reflect on the conference, and for that matter, my history within the steel industry.

For those who are unaware, this will be my last SMU Steel Summit Conference. At 71 years of age, and after 45 years in the steel industry, it is time for me to pivot to the next stage in my life. I will be speaking more about what is in store for me after the conclusion of the conference. For those attending the conference, you will get hints as to what comes next.

John Packard Summit 18

At the end of August every year, the timing of the SMU Steel Summit Conference seems to come at an inflection point for the industry. This year, we are seeing an economy in transition, a global steel industry that has gone through radical changes, and a year-long price index chart that looks like the waves off Maui in January. It is a suitable time for SMU to gather economic, steel, and forecasting experts to discuss and debate the direction of things in the coming months and years.

Over the past dozen years, the industry has concluded that this conference is the place to be, and to be seen. This year we will have the largest attendance in the history of the SMU Steel Summit Conference. We have come a long way from the one hundred attendees we hosted at our first conference in Las Vegas. So, a special thank you to all of you who will be in Atlanta this week and to the 470+ companies that recognize the value in sending you to our conference.

I am leaving SMU at a time when the industry recognizes Steel Market Update as a true leader of reporting data and information not necessarily available through other periodicals. I regularly speak to experts and executives within the steel community worldwide, and they report on the value they receive from our publications, workshops, and conferences. SMU is considered to be truly unique, and I am thankful that the vision I had in 2008 became a reality and will live on long after I am gone and forgotten (although I hope I am not forgotten too soon).

When I began thinking about retiring, many thoughts went through my mind. The first was financial. I wanted to make sure I could afford to live with negative cash flow (Ugh, it still sounds ugly when I say it out loud). Once that was determined not to be an issue, my attention turned to making sure SMU would continue as a viable and expanding company after I left.

There were several reasons why I sold SMU to CRU in 2018. I knew the company was missing expertise that CRU brought to the table. That expertise enabled us to roll out the Service Center Shipments and Inventories Report and other products. CRU is also developing the next generation website for SMU. We have hired Michael Cowden, David Schollaert, Laura Miller, and Becca Moczygemba. They join Brett Linton, my very first employee. Add to that the oversight of John Ball, president of CRU North America, and SMU is in good hands.

The third step was coming to terms with my own well-being. I have been running on all cylinders for 45 years. The lady who is my significant other has told me many times over the past three years, “Your ego is trying to kill you.” I know many of you are wired similarly. How do I transition from being the chef, cook, and chief bottle washer (as my mom would say) to being a passive observer and more focused on the boards that I sit on? (Namely, the Hamline University Board of Trustees and Reibus International.)

This has taken time and reflection. And to be honest, it continues to be a work in progress. Even so, I am at peace with the decision I made over a year ago to end my career at the end of August 2022.

Tomorrow, SMU will host our 12th Steel Summit Conference. In ten days, I will officially retire.

So, let the games begin.

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us associated with Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Founder

John@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Johnpackard2021@gmail.com

770-596-6268

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Final thoughts

Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)

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Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)