Foreign vs Domestic Hot-Rolled Price Analysis

The temptation to purchase foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) at a bargain has all but faded, with adjusted foreign prices now offering little or no advantage over domestic steel, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. After taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration, foreign HRC prices for two of the three regions covered in this analysis offer no potential discount to domestic steel. The one region still holding an advantage offers just a 1% potential discount to US HRC. The appeal for cheaper imports has been shrinking since May.

The following calculation is used by SMU to identify the theoretical spread between foreign HRC prices (delivered to US ports) and domestic HRC prices (FOB domestic mills). This is only a “theoretical” calculation because freight costs, trader margins, and other costs can fluctuate, ultimately influencing the true market spread. This compares the SMU US HRC weekly index to the CRU HRC weekly indices for Germany, Italy and Far East Asian ports.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.