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    October 13, 2022

    Hot Rolled Futures: HRC Loses Battle With Upper $700s

    Written by Michael D'Angelo

    Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for two years. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton University. Mike can be reached at mdangelo@marex.com for comments/questions.

    The CME futures curve continues to take a beating after spot assessments fell well below $800 per ton — a floor that mills were battling to hold for a while. CRU’s weekly HRC index came in at $760 on Oct. 12, down $9 (-1.17%) from the previous week and now sitting at the lowest level since October 2020, which caused Q4 ’22 and Q1 ’23 to sell off even more (see Dec. at $700 now). The Nov ’22 contract traded as low as $680, down $90 (~12%) from last Monday’s high!

    Michael D'Angelo

    Mike D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for 2 years. In his role, D’Angelo performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Before joining Marex, he received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton University. Mike can be reached at mdangelo@marex.com for comments/questions.

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    Nucor said on Monday, Oct. 12, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,240 per short ton (st) this week, a $10/st increase from a week earlier. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,305/st, up $15/st from the prior week. Nucor is still offering lead times of three to five weeks, according to the letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 6, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,270/st, up $10/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 13.