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    Market Segment

    February 2, 2023

    Hot Rolled Futures: Cliffs Price Hike Boosts HRC Gains

    Written by David Feldstein

    Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active in the ferrous derivatives space since 2012.

    If the groundhog sees his shadow, does the rally continues for another six weeks? Something like that? Today is Groundhog Day, and that can only mean one thing… we got January’s auto sales data yesterday. Ward’s Total Vehicle Sales jumped to a better-than-expected 15.74 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in January.

    David Feldstein, SMU Contributor

    David Feldstein

    SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. David has over 20 years of financial market trading experience and has been active in the ferrous futures space since 2012. Feldstein earned an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business with concentrations in economics, statistics and analytical finance. He can be reached at davefeldstein@gmail.com.

    Read more from David Feldstein

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    Steel exports fall in September to lowest rate of the year

    US steel exports eased 3% from August to September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low since early 2025 and remain weak compared to volumes seen in prior years. In September, 615,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country, 2% below the average monthly export rate of the past twelve months. September trade was 3% higher than the same month of 2025, 19% lower than September 2024, 21% lower than September 2023, and 15% lower than September 2022. For context, exports fell to a five-year low of 469,000 st in December and reached a near-five-year high of 914,000 st in May 2023.

    Imports fall back slightly in September, slide further in October

    Final import data for September from the US Commerce Department shows a slight decline from August’s 15-month high. And October’s license count suggests another month-on-month (m/m) decline in imports. September imports of 2,416,717 short tons (st) were down just 1% from 2,434,108 st in August, a 15-month high. October license data show a steeper 8% m/m fall to 2,214,730 st (Figure 1, left). August appears to have been the peak for the recovery in imports, which has been ongoing since February of this year, when we saw some of the lowest levels since 2020.