• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    September 20, 2023

    US Light-Vehicle Sales Slip in August, Still Better YoY

    Written by David Schollaert

    US light-vehicle (LV) sales rose to an unadjusted 1.33 million units in August, up 12.8% vs. year-ago levels, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. Despite the year-on-year (YoY) boost, domestic LV sales fell 4.5% month on month (MoM).

    On an annualized basis, LV sales were 15 million units in August, down from 15.7 million units the month prior, and below the consensus forecast which called for a more modest decline to 15.4 million units.

    David Schollaert

    David Schollaert is deputy editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. He can be contacted at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

    Read more from David Schollaert

    Latest in Analysis

    SMU Survey: Mill negotiation rates rise on sheet, fall for plate

    Sheet buyers found mills slightly more negotiable on price this week, while plate buyers thought mills were less flexible on spot price tags, according to our latest survey data. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers to see whether mills will negotiate on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, 14% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order, up three percentage points from two weeks earlier (Figure 1). This is the highest reading since July 8, when the rate stood at 18%.

    SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available

    The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    supply

    September service center shipments and inventories report

    US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased marginally in September, gaining ground for only the second time all year. Shipping days of supply rose to 45.9 last month, according to SMU data. That figure marks a 3.7% increase from August. September’s result represents a modest gain after inventories hit a five-year low the previous month. But it’s nearly 16% below September 2025 levels. Sheet inventories have averaged ~45 shipping days of supply over the past six months. Flat-rolled inventories represented 2.18 months of supply in September, up 3.7% from August. However, the figure was 15.5% below September 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) gain in inventories resulted from a boost (+21.2%) in intake that was partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments.

    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.