Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

Written by Ethan Bernard


This time of year my thoughts often turn to the weather. Specifically yesterday, heat cranked up, as I sped to a café because of an Internet service outage. It was cold here in Austin, Texas. Might’ve even dipped down into the teens in the last couple of days. And while the folks in the Midwest and Northeast may scoff at such balmy temperatures, it hits different here. The city sends out text messages telling you to stock up on vital supplies and prepare for the apocalypse.

Of course, a main worry is the electrical grid. When that goes down, all bets are off. People’s minds turn to the great Snowmageddon of the winter of 2021, which left nearly 10 million people without power, mostly in Texas. The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) called it The Great Texas Freeze. THE NCEI said water pipes burst and “boil water advisories” were issued in many counties. Of course, following Murphy’s Law, this all took place during the Covid-19 pandemic.

While grid failure could represent a Category 5 for a household or business, other problems exist as the mercury plunges. With the latest cold snap occurring here in the US, managing your electric vehicle (EV) seems to be rocketing up the list of concerns.

Here’s a sample of headlines within the last 24 hours:

  • EV drivers wrestle with cold weather sapping their battery range NBC News
  •  Tesla owners say EV batteries won’t charge as brutally cold temperatures hit ChicagoUSA Today
  • Electric car owners confront a harsh foe: Cold WeatherNew York Times

I think we can all agree that the great brains who have pioneered EV development did not imagine their vehicles only being driven in south Florida. (Though how to charge your EV as a hurricane approaches could be another issue.)

Still, as a corollary to what is termed “range anxiety” regarding EVs, we can perhaps add something new: Winter Worry? Or for the acronym minded: Cold-Activated Battery Syndrome (CABS). Because you’re worried you might need to hail one if your EV goes out? Well, let’s face it, you’d probably get an Uber.

With automotive a key market for steel, it’s important to put things in perspective. While there could be hiccups along the way, the overall trend is towards electrification of the fleet. In my recent conversation with Worthington Steel Geoff Gilmore, he was upbeat on the trendline of EVs. He said that even though the growth wouldn’t be a “straight line,” EVs seem to be the where market is heading.

Whatever happens in the presidential election this year, infrastructure is sure to remain a focus. The US is going to be busy strengthening the grid. We don’t really have a choice. And innovators in EVs will be tinkering with those batteries.

If cell phones can go from the size of a briefcase to that smartphone in your pocket, surely the engineers can figure out a recipe to beat the wintry frost? As for me, it’s supposed to climb to 70F as I write this in the early afternoon on Thursday, according to KVUE. Sure, it may be 36F tonight, and 47F tomorrow. But for today, here in Texas, I could be faced with that age-old issue of survival: I really hope my air conditioning works.

Ethan Bernard

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Final thoughts

What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.

Final thoughts

Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)

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Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)