Final Thoughts

Final thoughts
Written by Brett Linton & Ethan Bernard
May 9, 2024
Last week we wrote about a brief lull in price movement, labeling it a period of wait and see.
It did, in fact, turn out to be pretty brief. This week… things are little bit different. Perhaps right now, following a price decrease that was not priced in to the market, we are more in a period of “hope and pray” or “Here we go, hold on to your hats.”
When things get volatile, especially in prices, it’s often best to return to something solid. Go back to basics, the foundations you can count on. Ground yourself, get earthy, etc.
Coincidentally, this week’s crossword highlights just such a theme: raw materials. From scrap to coal, prepare to roll up your sleeves and dig in.
Note, we’ll be doing a steel-themed crossword every Thursday leading up to our Steel 101 course on June 11-12 in Fort Wayne, Ind. The course includes a tour of SDI Butler, an EAF sheet mill.
Another feature we’ll be introducing is “This week in steel history.” Our inaugural entry is below. If there are any key events in steel that you’d like to highlight, let us know at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
This week in steel history:
The first commercially successful Bessemer steel furnace in the US began operation on May 8, 1864, in Wyandotte, Mich., at the Eureka Iron Co.
Bessemer furnaces were gradually phased out in favor of blast furnaces, with the last US Bessemer furnace decommissioned in 1968.
For any of our veteran readers with great Bessemer yarns, feel free to pass them our way!
Crossword
Click here to attempt this week’s crossword.


Brett Linton
Read more from Brett Linton
Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?