SMU market survey results now available

Key points and takeaways

We go over the big highlights of the survey in Final thoughts. Here are some other key points that we think are worth your time. (And, again, our premium subscribers can follow along with the latest results here.)

• Steel Buyers’ Current Sentiment slipped back down to a four-year low (slide 9). Future Sentiment (slide 11) also edged two points lower vs. the prior market check.
• When it comes to lead times, HR is stable. Tandems products have improved modestly. But plate continues to fall. (slide 13).
• On the price side, buyers said that most mills remain willing to negotiate lower sheet tags. But there was a modest decline in the number willing to cut deals following price increases by Nucor and by Cliffs (slide 16). We’ll be curious to see whether the negotiation rate continues to go down in the weeks ahead.
• On the raw materials front, two-thirds (slide 19) of respondents expect scrap prices to be sideways again in August. Another 26% expect prices to move up this month with just a few (8%) anticipating a decline.
• What might keep sheet prices in check? More than 35% of respondents said they missed their business forecasts in July (slide 20). Only ~5% exceeded forecasts last month. Also, more than three-quarters of service centers said they are releasing less steel (slide 28) than a year ago.
• What might support higher prices? Only 40% of service centers reported lowering prices – likely a reaction to mill price hikes. (See slide 38, one of our favorites.) That’s a significant shift from the nearly 85% who were cutting prices just two weeks. But it might be too soon to predict any surge in prices. Only 4% of service centers reported increasing prices.

There’s a lot more to unpack in the survey. Be sure to check out this week’s Final thoughts for some of the comments and key reactions directly from our sources.