Unsettled ferrous scrap market seen down in December

“Nothing has really traded,” one source told SMU. “Mills want to buy at down $20, highly unusual for December.”

Another source told SMU that a prominent buyer in the Great Lakes region is attempting to take busheling down $30/gt and shredded down $20/gt. 

The first source noted that sellers acknowledge there is weakness and that demand looks murky for the next few months. “Finished steel is not moving well. But there is some demand for scrap in December despite a bearish outlook,” he added.

Inventory adjustment?

However, the second source had a different outlook. 

Although scrap flows for both prime and obsolete grades have slowed, he said the mills and their in-house brokers are determined to bring down prices to adjust their year-end inventories. 

He went on to say that demand is weak on the “river” as several buyers, such as U.S. Steel’s Big River Steel, will not be buying as much scrap as during the last two months. 

Export tonnages are piling up at docks on the US Gulf Coast and US East Coast as Turkish mills are buying mainly from Northern Europe in the low $330s per metric ton. 

North Central US price bump?    

The second source continued that the only ray of hope of sales above $20 down is in the North Central US where weather has slowed activity.  But, he believes all they could expect is down $10/gt.

Looking to January, he added that the odds are markets will improve based on dealer resistance occurring in December and the level of inventories at mill locations. 

“Estimates are ranging from sideways to up $50/gt,” he concluded.