Features

Apparent steel supply shrinks to 45-month low in November
Written by Brett Linton
January 13, 2025
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market fell to a multi-month low in November, according to our analysis of Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’, we calculate this volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments with finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.
Total apparent supply for November was 7.65 million short tons (st), a 6% decline from the prior month. This marks the smallest monthly supply rate recorded since February 2021.
Prior to November, monthly supply had consistently remained within the 8-9 million st range for over two years. Recall that earlier in 2024, supply reached a 21-month high in May (8.90 million st).

Trends
To smooth out monthly fluctuations and better highlight trends, monthly supply levels can be recalculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA), as shown in Figure 2.
Supply on a 3MMA basis has trended lower since the late 2021 peak of 9.87 million st. The November 3MMA is down to a near-four-year low of 7.93 million st. One year prior it was 8.15 million st. Two years ago it was 8.25 million st.

Figure 3 shows the individual inputs for apparent supply and clearly shows what factors are contributing to the reduced volumes seen through November. Domestic mill shipments have declined each month since August, falling 590,000 st or 8.1% in three months’ time. While changes in finished imports and total exports have a less substantial impact on supply, both have also trended lower across the second half of 2024.

To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Get an inside look at steelmaking at SMU’s Steel 101 workshop
If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025

AISI: Raw steel production climbs to 7-month high
US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Price: Expect new trade shocks as Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff negotiations continue
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.