Features

Apparent steel supply shrinks to 45-month low in November
Written by Brett Linton
January 13, 2025
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market fell to a multi-month low in November, according to our analysis of Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’, we calculate this volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments with finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.
Total apparent supply for November was 7.65 million short tons (st), a 6% decline from the prior month. This marks the smallest monthly supply rate recorded since February 2021.
Prior to November, monthly supply had consistently remained within the 8-9 million st range for over two years. Recall that earlier in 2024, supply reached a 21-month high in May (8.90 million st).

Trends
To smooth out monthly fluctuations and better highlight trends, monthly supply levels can be recalculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA), as shown in Figure 2.
Supply on a 3MMA basis has trended lower since the late 2021 peak of 9.87 million st. The November 3MMA is down to a near-four-year low of 7.93 million st. One year prior it was 8.15 million st. Two years ago it was 8.25 million st.

Figure 3 shows the individual inputs for apparent supply and clearly shows what factors are contributing to the reduced volumes seen through November. Domestic mill shipments have declined each month since August, falling 590,000 st or 8.1% in three months’ time. While changes in finished imports and total exports have a less substantial impact on supply, both have also trended lower across the second half of 2024.

To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features

Final Thoughts
We’ve been talking about a potential inflection point for the past couple of weeks. And the market does appear to be nearing one.

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times inch up, plate moves lower
Sheet times ticked higher but remain within days of multi-year lows, territory they have been in since May. Plate lead times have shifted lower in the past month but remain about a week longer than they were at this time last year.

Worthington Steel becomes member of AISI
The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) has added Worthington Steel to its membership roster and elected Geoff Gilmore, president and chief executive officer of the steel processor, to its board of directors.

SMU Survey: Mills slightly less negotiable on spot pricing
Sheet and plate buyers say mills remain open to negotiating spot prices this week, though less so than in recent weeks, according to SMU’s latest market survey.

August service center shipments and inventories report
US service centers flat-rolled steel supply in August declined month-over-month (m/m) and year-over-year (y/y), according to SMU data.