US CRC price gains ground over imports

In our market check on Tuesday, March 25, US CR coil prices averaged $1,150 per short ton (st), up $25/st vs. the prior week. Prices are up $255/st since late January when mills first started increasing prices, initially backed by threats of tariffs.

Domestic CR prices are now, theoretically, 18.8% higher than imports. That premium is up from 14.8% last week but still a wide drop from 33.9% just before S232’s return.

In dollar-per-ton terms, US CR is, on average, $164/st more expensive than offshore product (see Figure 1) – up $40/st week on week (w/w) but still $122/st lower with S232 in effect.

The charts below compare CR coil prices in the US, Germany, Italy, South Korea, and Japan. The left side shows prices over the last two years and the right side zooms in to highlight more recent trends.

Methodology

SMU calculates the theoretical price difference between domestic and imported cold-rolled (CR) steel by comparing our US CR price (FOB domestic mills) with CRU’s indices (DDP US ports) for Germany, Italy, and East Asia (Japan and South Korea). This is an estimate, as actual import costs vary.

To approximate the cost of foreign steel delivered to US ports, SMU adds $90/st to foreign prices to cover freight, handling, and trader margins. This benchmark can be adjusted based on individual shipping costs. (If you import steel and have insights on these costs, you can contact the author at david@steelmarketupdate.com.)

East Asian CR coil

As of Thursday, March 27, the CRU Asian CR price stood at $531/st, down $9/st w/w. Prices had been unchanged for over a month before this cut. Factoring in a 71% anti-dumping duty (Japan, theoretical), a 25% S232 tariff, and $90/st in estimated import costs, the delivered price to the US is $1,224/st. The theoretical landed price of South Korean CR exported to the US is $753/st.

With the latest SMU CR price rising by $25/st to an average of $1,150/st, US-produced CR is now theoretically $74/st below Japanese imports but $397/st above South Korean imports. That’s a shift of $45/st and $37/st, respectively, w/w.

Italian CR coil

Italian CR prices ticked down $11/st this week to $726/st. After adding import costs and a 25% tariff, the price of Italian CR delivered to the US is, in theory, $997/st.

That means domestic CR is still theoretically $153/st more expensive than CR coil imported from Italy. The spread is up $39/st vs. last week, but $139/st off from three weeks ago before S232 was reinstated.

German CR coil

CRU’s German CR price was down $9/st vs. the previous week. After adding import costs and a 25% tariff, the delivered price of German CR is, in theory, $972/st.

The result: Domestic CR is theoretically $178/st more expensive than CR imported from Germany. The spread is up $37/st w/w, yet still a $133/st cut since S232’s re-emergence.

Editor’s note

We reference domestic prices as FOB the producing mill, while foreign prices are CIF the port (Houston, NOLA, Savannah, Los Angeles, Camden, etc.). Inland freight from either a domestic mill or a port is important to keep in mind when deciding where to source from. It’s also important to factor in lead times. In most market cycles, domestic steel will deliver more quickly than foreign steel. Note also that, effective March 12, 2025, undiluted Section 232 tariffs were reinstated on steel imports. Therefore, the Japan, South Korea, German, and Italian price comparisons in this analysis now include a 25% tariff.