Features
SMU Week in Review: April 7 - 11
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
April 11, 2025
Well, it was another chaotic week on the trade front, with harsh tariffs announced, market upheaval, and then a pause on a range of trading partners. But there is news out there beyond trade. Let’s take a look at some highlights from the past week.
In the latest twist in the story of U.S. Steel’s fate, investment firm Ancora Holdings dropped its plan to take control of the iconic Pittsburgh steelmaker. Ancora cited Nippon Steel’s proposed bid for USS “gaining momentum.”
The move came after President Trump on Monday ordered the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to conduct a new review of the US Steel-Nippon Steel deal. But, the review doesn’t mean a sale is in the bag. Trump said he is still against selling USS to a Japanese company.
US ferrous scrap prices declined in April for all the grades tracked by SMU amid tariff uncertainty. Looking forward, it appears that the export market is headed lower from early April levels, according to one scrap source contacted by SMU. This means there could be incentive for US exporters to offer shredded scrap into the domestic again in May at lower prices than April.
With 25% tariffs imposed on Canadian steel imports, companies like Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario-based Algoma Steel have to weigh whether to absorb those costs or pass them on to buyers. For the time being, Algoma is choosing the former. “You can assume we’re eating a big part of that tariff,” said Michael Garcia, CEO. “I’m not going to say it’s 100%, but we’re eating a part of it.”
Garcia discussed this, Algoma’s imminent transition to EAF production, and the increased risks of trade with the United States during SMU’s monthly Community Chat.
Domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil prices declined last week for a third straight week. Most offshore markets bucked the trend and gained ground. Once again, uncertainty around tariffs caused US prices to slip as buyers moved to the sidelines. It’s unclear to date whether the 90-day pause on the more extreme “reciprocal” tariffs, announced by President Trump on Wednesday, would see buyers return to the market.
Stephanie Ritenbaugh
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Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Get an inside look at steelmaking at SMU’s Steel 101 workshop
If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025
AISI: Raw steel production climbs to 7-month high
US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Price: Expect new trade shocks as Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff negotiations continue
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.