Features

HVAC equipment shipments rebound in March

May 9, 2025

Heating and cooling equipment shipments jumped 20% from February to March, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments of water heaters, air conditioner/heat pumps, and warm-air furnaces all increased from February. Total monthly shipments are now at a seven-month high.

Total shipments increased to 2.06 million units in March, up 339,000 units month over month (m/m) (Figure 1, left). This recovery follows typical seasonal patterns, as air conditioner and heat pump shipments decline each winter and surge in the spring and summer months. March shipments were 4% greater than those seen one year prior.

Trends

To smooth out seasonal fluctuations, shipment data can be annualized as a 12-month moving average (12MMA) to better showcase long-term trends. On this basis, total shipments peaked in early 2022 following the post-Covid surge, then declined through the end of 2023. Shipments began to recover in early 2024 and have continued to do so since; the March 12MMA is up to 1.88 million units, the highest rate seen in two years (Figure 1, right).

Increased shipments across the board

Water heaters shipments increased 14% m/m in March to a three-year high of 941,000 units, marking the fourth consecutive month of increasing shipments. March levels were 6% greater than those seen one year ago.
Shipments of warm air furnaces rebounded 15% in March to a six-month high of 301,000 unts. March shipments were 20% higher than the same month last year, marking the tenth-consecutive month with positive annual growth.
Air conditioners and heat pump shipments surged 29% m/m in March to a six-month high of 819,000 units. While shipments rose m/m, levels remain below seasonal norms; March shipments were 2% lower than levels seen one year prior. Note that air conditioner/heat pump shipments are very seasonal, as evident in Figure 2.

Annual growth led by cooling equipment

Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis:

Air conditioner and heat pump shipments experienced the largest annual gain, rising 15% from the previous year to one of the highest annual growth rates witnessed since 2021.
Warm air furnace shipments grew by 12% year over year (y/y), the highest rate witnessed in more than three years.
Water heater shipments saw flat annual growth. This annual growth rate has steadily declined following the mid-2024 peak and had turned negative back in February.

An interactive history of heating and cooling equipment shipment data is available here on our website. If you need assistance logging in to or navigating the website, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.