Features
HVAC equipment shipments healthy through October
Written by Brett Linton
December 17, 2024
Shipments of heating and cooling equipment were stable from September to October, according to the latest data released from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).
October shipments ticked up 1% month on month (m/m) to 1.91 million units (Figure 1, left). Recall that shipments recently reached two of the highest levels observed in the past two years in June and August, at 2.16 and 2.07 million units, respectively. October shipments are 20% higher than the same month last year (which was a three-and-a-half year low at the time).
Trends
To smooth out seasonal fluctuations and better showcase trends, monthly shipment data can be adjusted to a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis. On this annualized basis, shipments have trended higher across 2024. The 12MMA through October has risen to a 17-month high of 1.83 million units (Figure 1, right). This trend reversal comes after the significant decline occurring from mid-2022 to the end of 2023, which followed the post-Covid surge.
Shipments by product
- Water heaters: Shipments rebounded in October to a five-month high of 805,000 units, up 20% m/m from September’s 14-month. Recall the two-year high of 887,000 units recorded back in March. October shipments were 2% less than levels seen one year ago.
- Warm air furnaces: Following September’s 23-month high, furnace shipments slipped 7% in October to 285,000 units. Shipments were 21% higher in October than levels recorded the same month last year.
- Air conditioners and heat pumps: Shipments fell in October for the fourth consecutive month, easing 10% m/m to 815,000 units. While down, total shipments were 53% greater than the same month one year prior. Note that air conditioner/heat pump shipments are very seasonal, with slowdowns experienced throughout the winter months as evident in Figure 2.
The full press release of this data is available here on the AHRI website.
You can also dig deeper into SMU’s interactive history of heating and cooling equipment shipment data.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features
Final Thoughts
We surveyed many of you this week and asked what you wanted to see from the new Trump administration. Responses were varied but fell largely into three groups: tariffs and trade policy, the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, and those who are concerned about too much government sway in steel. Some also expressed hope that President Trump would continue the infrastructure spending that began under former President Biden.
Tampa Steel Conference: Just 10 days to go!
With just 10 days to go and nearing the final countdown, we have nearly 550 registered (and counting) so far for the 36th annual Tampa Steel Conference. Join us and hundreds of industry executives at the JW Marriott Tampa Water Street from Sunday, Feb. 2, through Tuesday, Feb. 4. Take a break from the snow […]
SMU Survey: HR, CR and plate lead times up, coated products down
Steel mill lead times were mixed across the sheet and plate products SMU tracks, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU Survey: Most mills still willing to talk price
The majority of steel buyers we canvassed this week continue to report that mills are willing to negotiate prices on new spot orders, though not as much as they were in early-January.
Final Thoughts
Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.