Final Thoughts

The scrap survey, which is available to our premium members here, also provides a perspective on current events (like tariffs) from people in the scrap market everyday.

Tariff impact on scrap unclear

Case in point: We’ve seen a clear shift in sentiment toward President Trump’s tariff policies. Through April, most scrap survey participants thought tariffs would negatively impact their business.

That’s changed. Now, most (76%) say that the impact on their business is unclear. But while fewer view the tariffs negatively, there aren’t many tariff fanboys or fangirls either. Only 3% think tariffs are helping their business, as you can see in the chart below.

(Editor’s note: You can click on any of the charts below to expand them. Note, too, that the numbers in the bottom left-hand side of the tables indicate which page you can find them on in the survey slide deck.)

Here is what some survey respondents had to say:

“Clarity is lacking, and constant rule changes makes it incredibly difficult to commit. Therefore, conservatism is prevailing in all trades and movements.”

“People are scared and upset. Add that to uncertainty, and you have paralysis.”

“It’s holding up the scrap market.”

“I believe some reluctance to build comes from the administration and some from the Fed. Many construction end users are waiting for rates to come back down to start projects.”

“Too much uncertainty.”

A higher ceiling for prime?

On the price side, respondents to our June scrap market survey see tariffs on imported pig iron and direct-reduced iron (DRI) impacting prices for prime scrap.

In a nutshell: Reciprocal tariffs (10% at present for most countries) make for higher prices for imported metallics. That should result in higher prime scrap prices as well. However, some think that domestic electric-arc furnaces (EAFs) can offset potentially higher prices for metallics and prime by using more shred.

Even as that debate plays out, most (57%) agree that tariffs are impacting metallics prices now. That’s a significant change from earlier in the year, when most weren’t sure whether tariffs would be applied to raw materials.

Here is what some survey respondents had to say about the matter:

“Scrap alternatives establish a price ceiling for prime grades of scrap. The higher that ceiling, the higher prime pricing can go.”

“Increase in the price of those products should give pricing power to the suppliers of scrap since it is a substitute product.”

“Mini-mills will learn to operate with even less pig iron and will upgrade No. 2 shred to replace No. 1 busheling.”

Prices were sideways in June. What comes next?

We typically release our scrap survey in the first week of the month, which means we can glean some insights on how scrap prices might settle.

Settlements often happens in the second week of the month. This month, news of a sideways settlement broke earlier than usual. Most of our survey respondents (72%) had accurately predicted that move, as you can see in the chart below.

But opinions are mixed about where the market might go over the next two months: 33% see scrap prices strengthening, 40% predict that tags will continue sideways, and 27% think scrap prices could fall.  

Here is what some of them had to say:

Strengthening: “Hopefully there will be more domestic steel produced.”

Weakening: “Mill shutdowns plus Canadian and Mexican scrap looking for homes.”

Sideways: “It is probably going to take until September before things pick up.”

Strengthening: “if the 50% tariff on imported steel sticks. Otherwise down.”

Strengthening: “Tariff increases will increase domestic consumption of scrap.”

Sideways: “Decent auto demand will maintain prime grade supply. Weak mini-mill demand will leave heavy inventories at scrap yards.”

Those are just a few highlights. Again, our premium members can find the full survey results here.

Thank you!

If you participated in the survey, thanks! Your inputs helps us keep our finger on the pulse of both the steel and scrap markets.

If you’re in the scrap market and would like to participate in future surveys, please reach out to us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Finally, a shameless sales pitch: Our market surveys are available only to our premium subscribers. If you’re an executive member, data like this is worth upgrading for. (You’ll also get access to other premium services, like our service center inventory data.)

If you’d like to upgrade, please reach out to SMU account executive Luis Corona at luis.corona@crugroup.com.

SMU Steel Summit – scrap will be at the party too!

We’re not only running more articles and surveys about scrap in our newsletters, we’re also featuring scrap more prominently at our upcoming events.

So we’re thrilled to feature American Iron and Metal (AIM) President and CEO Herb Black among the executives who will be doing fireside chats at SMU Steel Summit this year.

Summit will be held Mon-Weds, Aug. 25-27, at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. Nearly 800 people from almost 400 companies have already registered.

We’d be thrilled if you could join us too. You can find the latest agenda here, and you can register here.

And thanks again to all of you for your continued support of SMU.