Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked our internal AI tool to analyze the responses we collected and highlight four key themes. Here is what it found:

• Price outlook cautious: Most expect prices to ease or stay flat through fall, with little conviction in a rebound.
• Weak demand: Buyers consistently cite soft demand across sectors, with few signs of near-term improvement.
• Slower inventory turnover: Stocks are being managed tightly, with several respondents noting slower movement than last year.
• Imports/tariffs mixed signals: Imports remain mostly unattractive due to lead times and volatility, while tariffs add uncertainty without clear benefits.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Based on recency bias and poor demand, I expect prices to continue to trickle down for at least a few more weeks. Then eventually – whether it’s the end of the summer doldrums, a lowering of interest rates, or some clarity on tariffs – I expect demand to pick up, service centers to restock, and that will put some upward pressure on pricing.”

“We are still anticipating they fall further from here. We all somewhat scratched our heads about the CSP going up this week.”

“Stable to declining. There is simply no demand, and the US (or global) economy is not recovering at a speed that would justify rising demand.”

“Down, Canada/Mexico deal balancing out drop of imports from the rest of the world.”

“Down or flat at best.”

“Flat on weak demand.”

“Stay stagnant.”

“Down in September, flat in October, perhaps up a bit in November.”

“For hot rolled and galvanized, I feel we will be hitting the bottom soon (within a few weeks), and we will see small increases with buying picking up.”

“Prices will increase slightly due to tariff implementation.”

“Prices will increase over this time frame.”

“Plate will inch upward.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand has declined due to the rush of buying to beat the tariffs being over, tariff uncertainty, and I think many consumers are out of money.”

“Demand remains pretty weak in just about every sector we talk to. I mean, is anyone busy out there?!?”

“Demand is flat and could weaken over time.”

“Declining due to instability in the marketplace due to tariffs.”

“Declining due to uncertainty on all fronts, from interest rates to war to policies.”

“Plate demand is stable.”

“Stable and we have been below forecasted demand for most of the year for the same reasons we’ve talked about since the first quarter.”

“Depends on the week, but feels soft.”

“Hard to say. It’s week to week, up and down.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower. Summer doldrums are the excuse, but the market is stagnant due to uncertainty.”

“Plate inventory is moving slower.”

“Inventory is moving slower than last year due to decreased demand.”

“Slower.”

“Slower, demand is weak.”

“Inventory is moving about the same. We purposefully are stocking a lot less, though – both for cash reasons and because we think the market is still on a downward trajectory.”

“About the same, which wasn’t good last year.”

“Very similar.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Just over half of buyers responding to this question (52%) responded that the tariffs are not helping their business. Just over a third (36%) remain unsure of the impact, while 12% believe the tariffs are helping them. Comments included:

“Trump’s trade policies are going to drive us into recession.”

“They aren’t helping, that is for sure. I think the “noise” it corrected is very bad for overall business.”

“They are creating instability in the marketplace.”

“The economy is not where it was with the first round of tariffs.”

“Tariffs have kept domestic pricing elevated. Interest rates are hurting demand more than anything.”

“Causing too much uncertainty.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Nearly half of respondents (46%) said it is too early to tell, similar to recent surveys. Almost a third (31%) reported they are not seeing any signs of reshoring, while 23% answered they have seen some evidence. Comments included:

“I’m finally starting to hear about at least some reshoring among the customers I call on, but I can’t say that I’ve seen any orders based on reshoring.”

“Multiple industries – furniture, metal buildings, etc.”

“We’ve said it before, the headlines are nice, but that seems to be all they are: headlines.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“No. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. No other reason.”

“No. Imports are not very attractive due to short domestic lead times, lower domestic prices, and uncertain future demand and prices.”

“No, not with tariffs being applied.”

“No, volatility and lead times are keeping people on the sidelines.”

“No, no need for supplemental supply.”

“We are getting calls on CR and GV, but nothing worth pulling the trigger on.”

“Imports are still pretty unattractive, pricing doesn’t seem to be there, and lead times certainly are not.”

“Some are, some aren’t – it really depends on the deal and producing mill/country.”

“Imports are always priced lower than domestic, even with new tariffs.”

“Only on light gauge .015” and below.”

“Our customers require mostly domestic material, so we don’t purchase foreign.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“The US dollar has had a drastic drop in value, steel imports are down a lot, and steel prices are still trending down. Points to almost no significant demand.”

“The mills cannot possibly be as busy as they want you to believe.”

“Is there anything that should be done about American and/or global steelmaking overcapacity?”

“The earnings speak for themselves; I wonder if we’ll see a big M&A splash on the service center side.”

“Indian steel mills may have tariffs coming due to India buying oil and gas from Russia.”