Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked our internal AI tool to analyze the responses and highlight four key themes. Here’s what it found:

• Modest upward pressure on prices: Most expect prices to rise slightly or stabilize after bottoming out, driven by limited supply, mill outages, and higher input costs – but weak demand and holidays may cap increases.
• Weak but stable demand: Demand is generally described as stable at low levels, with few signs of recovery and continued uncertainty dampening confidence.
• Slow inventory movement: Inventories are moving more slowly than last year due to soft demand and cautious buying, though a few note slightly improved turnover compared to a very weak prior year.
• Trade policy and tariff uncertainty: Tariffs and reshoring show mixed or minimal benefit – many cite higher costs, confusion, and limited real reshoring activity; imports remain largely unattractive due to pricing, risk, and lead times.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Prices will increase over the next three months after bottoming out, driven by higher raw materials costs, low inventories, and no imports.”

“Plate will be stable to upward in Q4 for several obvious reasons.”

“Rise slowly and slightly.”

“Mills will try to slightly increase pricing, but that will be difficult during the holiday months.”

“Look to increase, depending on interest rate direction.”

“Up, planned shutdowns and decrease in supply.”

“Slowly moving upward. Weak imports and mill outages are keeping balance between supply vs. demand.”

“Flat and then starting to go up in January, maybe already a bit in December.”

“Flat, no major demand.”

“Flat, no evidence of anything to spark demand. People are low on steel, so that will help keep price erosion at bay.”

“To remain stable due to demand is still weak and supply levels are stable.”

“Expect prices to remain under pressure in the winter months and rebound slightly at the start of the year.”

“I know a lot of folks think pricing will head higher from here, but we just don’t see it. We believe things are very unstable. We point to weak overall demand and also expect trade deals with Mexico and/or Canada to come to fruition (bringing in more steel again from those countries).”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is stable, but at a low level. I don’t talk to anyone – upstream or down – who is actually busy.”

“Demand is cautiously stable.”

“Stable due to weak demand and unstable supply levels.”

“Stable – few if any are taking long positions, which might catch some off guard if demand kicks upward.”

“Stable due to market uncertainty, the government shutdown, and lack of confidence.”

“Stable at low levels.”

“Plate demand is still softer than we anticipated.”

“Demand is declining as we head into the holiday months.”

“Demand is declining and weak.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower… The metal building industry has been slow since August.”

“Plate inventory is moving slower than expected.”

“Inventory is moving maybe a wee bit slower, which is pretty scary.”

“Slower, lack of demand – but certainly more profitable.”

“Slower due to weaker demand.”

“Inventory is slower based on our cyclical nature.”

“Same as last year at this time.”

“Faster this year, last year Q4 was terrible with the election and Stellantis falling off.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

The majority of buyers (46%) say their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. Another 29% are unsure how the policies will affect them, while 25% believe the tariffs are helping their business. Comments included:

“They will drive the US and world economies into recession.”

“Costs to land product have increased due to tariffs.”

“Are they helping ANYONE?“

“They’ve created so much extra ‘noise’ and distraction. It is just hard to conduct business with so many unknowns.”

“They have helped maintain inventory values.”

“Price protection. We had the same margin as last year – with this year’s volume, we’d be in trouble.”

“Continues to fight against foreign competition.”

“With demand down, we do not need a slug of cheap imports destroying our market.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Over a third of respondents (39%) report seeing some evidence. Still, almost as many (36%) report seeing no signs of reshoring, and the remaining 25% say it is too early to tell. Comments included:

“Not at all. The headlines are fun and there are some good photo ops out there, but we don’t buy it.”

“A bit in conversation.”

“Way too soon if any.”

“Lots of future announcements, only small parts changes actually hitting demand at this point in time.”

“Plenty of commitments, just takes time to break ground.”

“Automotive parts and manufacturing being reshored.”

“Currently working on reshoring projects.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Imports are not competitive and present risk we are not willing to take.”

“Imports are not attractive due to price/lead time risk and uncertainty of trade tariff changes.”

“Imports remain pretty unattractive. I blame the lead time/delivery schedule there. Domestics are so short, why bother with imports?”

“No, and it will get worse with steel from Europe including its CO2 costs (loss of credits).”

“No, lead times are too long for market conditions.”

“No, cheap Russian material is flooding offshore markets.”

“No, tariffs and lead times.”

“Plate imports are just not attractive at this moment in time for various reasons, so our import activity is sidelined for the foreseeable future.”

“Only on 0.012” material and thinner.”

“Plate import offers have been fewer in recent weeks.”

“Yes, import prices I receive are priced better than domestic.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“The combination of a crappy market and the ‘gray tsunami’ seems to be hitting our industry hard – a lot of legacy fabricators, regional SSCs, etc., are all closing up their doors. Sad to see.”

“The bullwhip effect tariffs had on the 2021 bell curve and how they compare to today’s upcoming market.”

“Galvalume coating extras increased – with zinc pricing moving higher, we may soon see the same with galvanized.”

“Who is Oregon Steel buying domestic slabs from?”

“How U.S. Steel looks in the future and the impact in the Midwest; Gary #14 furnace re-line and Calvert slab deal has them taking on less trade contract business for 2026.”

“Decreased capacity for high carbon and alloy steel melting.”

“Cheap Russian steel is flooding India, Turkey, etc.”

“Freight rates decreasing in line with lower fuel costs.”