Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked our internal AI tool to analyze the responses we collected and highlight four key themes. Here’s what it found:

• Buyers expect supply-driven price spikes from tariffs, reducing inventories short term.
• Many view demand as weak or seasonal, with OEM activity uncertain.
• Imports remain unattractive because of tariffs and long lead times.
• Several worry about policy uncertainty from CBAM, Section 232, and President Trump’s tariffs.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Up, up, and away.”

“Prices will continue to escalate.”

“Continue to rise through Q1 and level by Q2 depending on the economy.”

“Upward… They have already increased for December.”

“Plate is moving upwards in the next 90 days.”

“Rising due to tariffs and slightly increased demand.”

“Up just a bit until capacity utilization tops 80%, then up faster. Maybe HRC will reach $940.”

“Pricing will increase by 5% until the end of January, but then will move back by March to today’s levels. Tariffs have reduced inventories.”

“Sideways.”

“We might be an outlier, but we see this ‘supply-driven’ rally petering out pretty quickly, with pricing falling back into the $700s in Q1.”

“Mills will try to push pricing up, but it likely won’t last long demand is muted.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand seems pretty weak still. We don’t talk to many OEMs or big fabricators who are actually busy. We heard a rumor that automotive would take off in Q1, but it seems that wasn’t accurate.”

“Declining due to holidays.”

“Seasonal decline.”

“There has been a slight pick-up, but overall, still stable.”

“Stable, we do not see a recession in the future, but the economy is slower.”

“Plate is currently stable with near-term positive uptick.”

“Stable, but with smaller jobs.”

“Demand is flat to down.”

“Improving, historic Q1 OEM requirements and lack of foreign steel.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving pretty slowly, even with some of the bigger service centers offering EOY discounts/deals to create more inventory turns.”

“Plate inventory is moving a little slower than last year. However, many sizes and grades are out of stock at several service centers.”

“Slower, smaller orders.”

“Slower due to holidays.”

“Slower, demand is lower.”

“Steel is slower, aluminum is faster.”

“About the same.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Most buyers responding to this question (52%) feel their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. About a third are unsure how the policies will impact them, and only 14% believe that the tariffs are helping. Comments included:

“No, we are still shook that the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican steel are in place!”

“No, they will increase the national debt and dribble the USA into recession.”

“No, people don’t want to get caught physically long on exposure.”

“No, they’re causing higher pricing when demand is slowing.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Almost half of respondents (46%) said it is too early to tell. Of the remainder, 36% reported they have not seen any signs of reshoring, while 18% said they have seen some evidence. Comments included:

“Too early to tell and we don’t have the workforce to support it.”

“Too early to say, but we have had some communications with our customers.”

“Too early to say. It takes time to break ground, we expect reshoring to begin in 2026.”

“Maybe we’ll see it eventually, but nothing yet.”

“No, just increasing costs.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Not with those tariffs they are not…”

“Imports are not attractive. Pricing is not a deal with 50% tariffs, future trade tariff uncertainty, and long lead times.”

“No, because of barely comparable pricing and long lead times.”

“Import pricing is getting more and more in line/attractive, but lead times are still too long.”

“Too volatile, lead times too long.”

“No, too expensive still.”

“Plate offers on Imports are currently not attractive due to pricing and lead time to get material in.”

“Only on 0.012” or lighter.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“The mills are getting advantageous with these increases, but this feels purely supply-driven. Will we see a collapse in the 1H of ’26 if demand doesn’t improve (especially if imports come roaring back in)?”

“Service centers are struggling to push down price increases despite having higher input costs. End-users are still in control on the transactional side as everyone tries to make up for tonnage shortfalls for the year.”

“What will be the possible adjustments to Section 232 tariffs on EU countries in exchange for some digital concessions? TRQ or reduced rate? I doubt anything will happen.”

“The incredible disruption to global markets caused by CBAM. It starts in four weeks and nobody has a clue.”

“Imports are significantly down and less is on the way. People will be caught short and not able to buy domestically especially when it comes to Galvalume.”

“Exactly what steel material is needed for the data center and cooling-station explosion in this country.”

“Mill capacity on high-carbon and alloy sheet.”

“European scrap market futures.”