Final Thoughts: Topics to watch at Tampa Steel '26

If you’re on the fence about joining, consider a few good reasons to go: (1) The weather in Tampa is almost certainly better than where you are now. (2) The networking is great. And (3) you’ll come away with “actionable intelligence” for your business.

Below are some of the topics and questions we’ll be discussing, whether on stage or along the sidelines of the event.

By ‘actionable intelligence,’ we mean now – like, right now

Before we gathered in Tampa last year, the SMU team knew we’d be talking about tariffs. And we knew speakers would be sending over talking points and slide decks at the last-minute as they adjusted to the latest news.

What we didn’t expect was that we’d be talking about a changing tariff regime in real time from the stage. It at times felt more like taping a live cable news show than a choreographed steel conference. (A big shoutout to all our speakers who adapted on the fly.)

But looking back, it was hardly the first time we’ve been discussing world events through the lens of steel in something close to real time. Case in point: At Tampa in February 2022, some discussion – whether on stage or on the sidelines – centered on whether Russia would mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine after the winter Olympics. (This occurs to me as I get ready not just for the Super Bowl but also another winter Olympics.)

Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President, and CEO Lourenco Goncalves predicted from the stage that Russia would invade Ukraine. He said the battle would be centered in Ukraine’s industrial heartland. And he indicated he had that information from well-connected sources in DC. Some folks dismissed it as bluster. But on Feb. 24, not long after Tampa Steel wrapped up Feb. 16, Russian forces streamed into Ukraine.

What was considered an outlier opinion proved to be spot on. And we’ve seen trade and demand patterns reshaped ever since. Who would have predicted in 2022 that the US would be sourcing pig iron almost exclusively from Brazil? Or that Europe rearming would represent a not insignificant amount of demand for steel and metals? And, more importantly, what outlier opinions this year might prove to be prescient next year?

Another big topic in 2022: congestion at US ports as they struggled to keep pace with strong pandemic-era demand. At the time, conference attendees described the supply chain situation as “a dumpster fire” or “flaming chaos”.

‘Flaming chaos’ moves from ports to trade policy

We’re not seeing container ships stacking up to the horizon and beyond this year. And with the barrage of tariffs fired by President Trump over the last year, maybe we’ll soon be bemoaning a lack of ships. (It’s always something.) That’s not to say there is a lack of flaming chaos, especially when it comes to trade matters. Just look at this issue and other issues of SMU and AMU over the last week.

What will the Supreme Court decide when it comes to Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs? And if the Court rules against them, what other measures might the president turn to? Also, will any of the tariffs Trump has threatened over the last month on social media go into effect? Or was it bluster? (The list includes eight EU countries, countries that do business with Iran, Canada, South Korea… and I’m probably missing someone.)

Section 232, in contrast, has survived multiple court challenges and is on stronger legal footing. But exactly when Trump might increase or decrease S232 tariffs on US trade partners remains difficult, if not impossible, to predict.

If you’d told people a year ago there would be enduring 50% S232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico, they probably would have told you to get a new crystal ball. What sounds crazy now when it comes to tariffs that might be the status quo in 2027?

Is ‘Fortress North America’ still a thing?

When we last gathered, in August at Steel Summit, the consensus was tariffs would come down ahead of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement being reviewed this year. The takeaway: the goal was to build a “Fortress North America” trade policy, with the US, Mexico, and Canada cracking down on imports in tandem.

Now, I think it’s fair to ask whether all three countries still see Fortress North America as a goal. Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s now somewhat notorious TV ad criticizing US tariffs appeared to delay an agreement last year. And let’s just say Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade deal with China and his speech at Davos last month one-upped Ford, and then some.

Maybe you see Carney’s moves as practical. What other choice does Canada have in the face of continued bullying from a US president who insists on calling it the 51st state? Maybe you see it as a fundamental betrayal of the US by an erstwhile ally. How can Canada both depend on the US for defense and encourage a rival economic union among “middle powers”?

Whatever your stance, I think it’s fair to say the USCMA review and the path to Fortress North America aren’t as straightforward as they were just a month ago. Will USMCA be extended? Or could we see what the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk and consulting firm, calls “zombie USMCA“?

M&A and new capacity news

We’ll probably be talking about M&A too. I’m looking forward to hearing from Worthington Steel CEO Geoff Gilmore and Kloeckner Metals CEO John Ganem. Worthington Steel’s acquisition of Germany’s Kloeckner is just one of several blockbuster deals that could reshape the North American steel market.

It’s entirely possible we could see more M&A news over the next week or even during Tampa Steel. Here are just a few items on my radar: a potential Cliffs-POSCO deal, the possible sale of BlueScope, and the Ryerson-Olympic merger. And those are just the megadeals. Our understanding is that smaller deals continue to percolate across the industry.

As for new capacity, we know South Korean steelmakers Hyundai and POSCO are working together to build a new EAF sheet mill in Louisiana. What about Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel’s talk of a new greenfield mill for U.S. Steel? Also, we’ve seen plenty of new capacity added on the long products front too. That includes Hybar’s new mill in Osceola, Ark. Maybe Hybar CEO David Stickler will tell us where the rebar producer plans to build next?

Is everything K-shaped now?

SMU often sees a big disconnect when we ask people about demand. We hear from certain mills as well as some larger steel buyers and service centers that business is booming thanks to, for example, the voracious demand for steel from data centers. Tech companies have invested untold billions in AI. Those centers represent AI’s growing presence in the physical world. And Nucor, which is benefitting from that demand, has some helpful information on just how steel intensive those centers can be.

But at the same time, we hear from many steel consumers that they’ve not seen much of a boost in demand. Is it terrible? No. Do they hope this year will be better than last year? Yes. Are they seeing concrete evidence of that improvement to date? Maybe. Depends on who you talk to.

I’m pretty sure we’ll hear from some speakers at Tampa that this “K-shaped” demand recovery in steel reflects, to a certain extent, what we’re seeing in the broader US economy. Some folks, especially the wealthier among us, are doing very, very well. Others, especially those living paycheck to paycheck, might be struggling. Or at least putting off buying that new car.

When does downstream get its day in the sun?

Here is perhaps another example of a K-shaped recovery: US mills have profitably expanded since the initial implementation of Section 232 in 2018. The policy was arguably the brainchild of former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and former USTR Robert Lighthizer – both steel guys. And S232 has worked brilliantly for producers. Sustained investment in new, more efficient, more environmentally friendly US production can be seen as nothing but a major win for steel.

So, it’s understandable why US mills want to keep the tariffs in place. But as we’ve seen from SMU survey results since last March, tariffs remain unpopular among steel buyers – most of whom also aren’t seeing much evidence of reshoring.

There are times when I wonder whether the legacy of Trump 2.0, at least when it comes to steel, hinges in large part on whether the administration is able to craft policy that allows steel consumers – and domestic manufacturing more broadly speaking – to succeed to the extent US mills have. So, personally, that’s something I’ll be looking to learn more about at Tampa Steel.

Don’t forget to pack some questions for the Q&As!

What about you? If you are registered for Tampa Steel, don’t forget to download the conference app. You’ll use it not only to network but also to ask questions to our speakers. Think of it as a way to make sure you get the information you need out of the event.

And until we meet in Tampa, thanks again to all of you – whether you’re in the US, Canada, Mexico, or abroad – for your continued support of SMU (and AMU). We really do appreciate it.