Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we read through each of the responses collected and found these key takeaways:

• Most buyers believe prices will continue to rise in the short term, but many expect the momentum to slow and prices to ease in the coming months.
• Demand remains stable for most, though some question what is driving it.
• Inventory movement continues to vary amongst respondents, with near-equal splits on whether it is moving faster, slower, or the same as last year.
• Some say the attractiveness of imported material is improving, even considering extended lead times and tariff costs.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david.schollaert@crugroup.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Trend higher. I have to admit they might now surpass $1,000, but I don’t really understand why.”

“Continued increases through March. Tariffs and more tariffs!”

“Prices will continue to increase, but at a slower pace unless real demand improves.”

“Slight increases through the end of Q1.”

“Upwards until May-June.”

“Pricing will increase in the short term due to reduced capacity of mills and tariffs impacts, but will fall back down to December rates by June/July.”

“I feel we will be seeing prices peak and begin to decline over the next three months. I don’t feel it will be significant movement up or down though until we get clarity on what true demand is.”

“Up then down again.”

“Flat to down. Demand doesn’t support current pricing.”

“Start to decline, demand is weak.”

“At some point this has to end, right? We just aren’t big believers that imports will stay away at $1,000/ton domestic HRC.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is steady, but we are trying to determine if it’s true demand or just restocking as companies try to get ahead of future price increases.”

“Stable, it never really went up. Still muted overall.”

“Stable. Inventories are still good, automotive demand is down.”

“Demand seems to be stable-to-declining. The year isn’t getting off to the start we had hoped for. Unless you’re into data centers (or ‘The Wall’), things are bleak.”

“Stable to improving.”

“Slowly improving.”

“Demand is declining.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“About the same. Some products are moving faster and some slower.”

“Same as last year.”

“Inventory is probably moving a bit slower on our end, but our region (Pacific Northwest) is pretty depressed.”

“Slower, no more pull forward ahead of tariffs like last year.”

“Slower due to lower demand. Supply is still good.”

“Much faster than I can replace it.”

“Faster, more demand.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Over half of the buyers responding to this question (55%) feel their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. Another 30% are unsure how the policies will impact their business, and only 15% believe that the tariffs are helping. Comments included:

“No, tariffs are giving mills the ability to hold prices are higher than what demand is, which is hurting demand even more.”

“50% Section 232 is hurting everyone but the few steel producers in the USA. Raising costs for steel consumers and hurting traditional trade parters like Canada and Mexico who export to the USA normally.”

“No, demand still crushed, certainty low now the market is showing major cracks.”

“No, they are allowing for costs to be increased across the board.”

“Yes, this is almost identical to the movie Idiocracy when NotSure started putting water on the crops instead of Brawndo… Tariffs being the water.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Half of our respondents said they have not witnessed any signs of reshoring due to tariffs, while 30% answered they have seen some evidence. The remaining 20% said it is too early to tell. Comments included:

“No, mostly just talk with some “future” time for investment.”

“No long-term confidence.”

“Yes, tariff implications have increased costs in comparison to domestic landed costs.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“No, due to tariff and landed cost increases.”

“As long as tariffs on USMCA and European partners stay where they are, not likely.”

“I think we’re to that point, so yes. I keep hearing of spec tons coming into LA and Houston, too.”

“Close to being attractive.”

“Getting there… Just concerned that domestic prices will be down by the time foreign arrives.”

“Imports are somewhat attractive, but it depends on the product.”

“Long products are attractive due to domestic lead times.”

“Only attractive on lighter gauges.”

“Painted and AZ55 imports look good.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“The market is acting as it should, as in a textbook response, to tariffs creating a level playing field with dumping prevented.”

“Automotive is losing headlines to data centers, but automotive steel consumption is going to be interesting this year.”

“Three states have already put pauses on data center builds and this could continue. AI data center promises can’t afford to miss or circular financing falls apart.”

“Who is going to bid on AHMSA. More importantly, what role will the government play.”

“Tight supply on high carbon and alloy.”