Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we read through each of the responses collected and found these key takeaways:

• Future price projections are mixed. Some buyers expect the Middle East conflict will help push the market higher, while others expect a correction in the coming months.
• Most continue to report that demand is overall stable, with a modest group saying it is improving.
• Many say inventories are moving similar to year-ago levels, some say turns are faster.
• A fair share say imported material is becoming more attractive in comparison to domestic prices.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I think the trend will be upward as long as the war with Iran persists.”

“With the rising cost of fuel due to the war in Iran, we expect prices to rise.”

“Increasing, demand will rise.”

“Upward, pent-up demand and global freight tension.”

“Slightly higher, mills will take advantage of the Iranian conflict to inflate pricing.”

“Sideways, slowly upward.”

“I think we’re going to see a run-up through March, which is about three months later than I initially thought. But then we are still anticipating a correction heading into the summer.”

“I expect smaller increases in March and that prices will begin coming back down. I feel there is ample supply in the USA to cover demand, and we are at a point that foreign is now competitive enough to put pressure on domestic mills.”

“Flat to down. With energy prices this high and economies suffering, demand will decline.”

“Down, mills will catch up with their overbooking, and they will be forced to decrease.”

“Pricing should come down as demand will be stable and additional supply will enter the market. The issue will be the war in Iran, as energy costs will spike in the short terms for mills and put pressure on pricing.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Improving, pent-up demand still growing.”

“Plate demand is getting better each week.”

“Improving short term and stable a couple months out.”

“Improving in new markets, stable in some markets.”

“Stable to improving.”

“Stable for us now, which isn’t great.”

“Stable, but mills are late, causing customers to over buy.”

“Demand still seems pretty crappy. I think that is a mix of our region (West Coast) and customer base (non-data center and non-border wall business).”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Faster due to late deliveries.”

“Plate inventory running at a good pace.”

“Faster than last year, as offshore supply has decreased.”

“Faster, increase in business.”

“Much faster.”

“About the same, and 2025 wasn’t great.”

“Stable.”

“Inventory is moving about the same, but we are stocking less.”

“Slower but picking up.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Over half (53%) of the buyers who responded to this question said their businesses were not benefiting from tariffs. Of the remainder, 32% were unsure whether tariffs were helping or hurting their businesses, and only 16% said that the tariffs were helping.

Comments included:

“No, increasing steel prices due to tariffs.”

“No, they are crippling my export business into the US.”

“No, the tariff craziness has now been unseated by these ‘conflicts’ continuing to rage.”

“No, seriously damaging the economy.”

“Yes, this is almost identical to the movie ‘Idiocracy.’”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Just under half of respondents (47%) reported they were not seeing any signs of reshoring. The remainder was split, with 26% saying they had seen some evidence and 26% saying it was too early to tell. Comments included:

“No, in fact I am seeing retraction of some of the original reshoring initiatives.”

“No, companies are waiting it out.”

“No, at some point maybe the reshoring happens in earnest, but nothing yet.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“We’re pretty much there. Import pricing is good and only looking better.”

“Imports are always less expensive.”

“More attractive due to pricing.”

“Depends on the country of origin. EU is going up, Asia is steady, at least for now.”

“Attractive on light gauge painted.”

“Plate imports are NOT attractive for several reasons.”

“Not attractive on flat rolled because our customers require domestic.”

“Not as long as there is a 50% tariff.”

“No, due to quotas and tariffs.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Hard to tell what is real, except when people need steel, they need it now.”

“The impact on inflation to the jobs market and housing starts. Should fuel prices continue to increase, the impact on inflation could significantly negatively impact the recovery.”

“The market is starting to govern itself as it should with a more level playing field worldwide… Meaning all players (countries) should be able to trade when needed without any one country’s outlandish overcapacity rotting the entire market. We have already received RFQs for us to export to Europe.”

“South American steel imports may be the next market due to focus on Asian countries for tariffs.”

“The M&A activity and consolidation is sure interesting – at both the mill and service center levels. I certainly don’t think it is over either.”

“A slowdown has begun, you can see it in the housing market.”