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    Market Data

    SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times remain elevated

    Written by Brett Linton


    Steel mill lead times remained elevated this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey. Production times for sheet and plate products continue to hold at or near multi-year highs, where they have been for more than a month.

    Sheet production times are a few days longer than they were three months ago, nearing the high levels last seen in late 2023 and early 2024. Plate production times have stretched by almost a week and a half since January and are now at their highest level in four and a half years.

    The average production time for hot-rolled coil is just over six and a half weeks. Cold rolled and coated products are around eight weeks. Plate is just under seven and a half weeks.

    Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)

    Compared to our previous market check, all five of our lead-time ranges saw minor shifts this week:

    • The longest hot rolled lead time we considered increased from nine weeks to 10.
    • The longest cold rolled lead time we considered decreased from 11 weeks to 10.
    • The longest galvanized lead time we considered increased from 10 weeks to 11.
    • The shortest Galvalume lead time we considered increased from six weeks to seven.
    • The longest plate lead time considered increased from eight weeks to nine.

    Most buyers predict stability

    Most respondents this week (60%) expect lead times will remain stable two months from now. The remainder is split: 20% believe lead times will continue to extend, while 20% forecast contractions. Comments included:

    “Flat- demand is stable, but instability in the broader market may reduce demand.”

    “They will flatten out, then decrease.”

    “Flat- only a few mills are extended.”

    “Flat- lead times in Canada are normal.”

    “Contracting- after the outages wrap, we think we’ll see pricing falter.”

    “Extending- not enough inventory here, and demand is going to be good.”

    Lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to better highlight trends. All of our sheet and plate 3MMAs extended further this week, a trend seen since last November (Figure 2).

    Sheet 3MMA lead times are almost two weeks longer than the two-year lows seen last September, though they are less than a week above levels seen one year ago. The latest plate 3MMA is about a week and a half longer than it was a year ago.

    Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 6.2 weeks, cold rolled at 7.8 weeks, galvanized at 7.6 weeks, Galvalume at 8.1 weeks, and plate at 6.6 weeks.

    Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Brett Linton

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