Community Events
June 29, 2026
SMU Community Chat: Tanners sees tags tapering off in second half
Written by Ethan Bernard
Timna Tanners thinks the current steel price rally will lose steam and prices will slip as we get deeper into 2026. Tanners, managing director at Wells Fargo, sat down with SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden last week to discuss her view of the market, where steel prices have been rising over the last few months.
Her team has “been pretty bullish about steel prices” for nearly a year, she said. However, their current view is “prices were going to peak and roll off in the second half, really more in the fourth quarter.” Slower demand and increased supply are among the chief reasons.
In general, she sees prices topping out at $1,200 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil, and that peak being reached in the next few months.
Spot-less
First off, Tanners noted the situation on the ground right now as far as securing tons.
“Spot is not available. There’s a lot of panic,” she said. “I’ve even heard of some jobs that couldn’t go forward. People were sending their employees home because they just didn’t have steel.”
She called it “a pretty extreme situation.” But how did we get here?
Tanners said the mills have been behind schedule, demand is a little better than expected, and inventories at the end of last year were lower than usual.
She said anytime the mills get behind, “you just see a panic and more buying.”
In fact, she’s been hearing lately that imports are on the rise and will tick up into the second half. “Not because people love to buy imports with 50% (S232) tariffs, but because they need the metal,” she said.
On the tariff front, Tanners and her team didn’t think Section 232 was going away anytime soon.
“We do not think that there’s any chance, or a very low chance, of tariffs being pulled back during the Trump administration, so that’s another two and a half years of 50% tariffs,” she said. “It’s not our view that those tariffs go higher, necessarily, but there could be more attention to derivative products, or trying to close some of the loopholes.”
Peak is coming
Tanners pointed out that seasonally, demand usually slacks off in the second half, and we should begin to see inventory replacement. And there will be more supply coming online.
“Into Q4, with lower demand, more imports, more domestic supply, I do see supply and demand more balanced, and prices coming down a bit,” she said.
She signaled $1,200/st for hot-rolled coil as a probable ceiling for this market.
“Obviously, there could be transactions above that level to secure tons that are tough to get now, but I think that dynamic will change over the next couple months,” Tanners said.
As for the exact time prices will start to slip, Tanners declined to speculate.
“What I’m saying is that August, September, October, I don’t think we’re going to pinpoint that perfectly,” she said. “I think that’s a great reason for people to attend your conference (in Atlanta). How’s that?”
Of course, that was just a small slice of all the interesting information discussed in the Community Chat. (The full talk is here.) But speaking of that conference, Tanners will be speaking at the SMU Steel Summit 2026 in August. We’ll see how much has changed in the market by then. And we can’t wait to see you all there!
