Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we read through each of the responses collected and found these key takeaways:

• Most buyers expect prices to continue rising in the near future, although some see the rally slowing later in the year.
• Demand is said to be stable to improving, although conditions remain mixed across the market.
• Inventories are moving faster than a year ago for most respondents, and stocks remain lean.
• Imports are attractive on price for many buyers, though quotas, long lead times, and quality concerns limit their appeal.
• Most cannot say if tariff policies have helped their businesses. Few have seen evidence of tariffs driving manufacturing reshoring, a trend similar to what we’ve observed in other recent surveys.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Nothing seems to be stopping pricing from rising, so I’m going with the flow and saying that prices will continue to rise for the next 2-3 months.”

“I thought as of Friday afternoon this rally might be ending sooner than I anticipated (due to the Canadian deal). But of course that falls apart, and now we’re back to rising tides. Crazy times.”

“Upward. Nothing to stop the trend; mill outages will have an impact.”

“Prices will continually increase through November.”

“Will remain high but steady due to demand and tariff implications.”

“Continue the small increases.”

“Higher unless the Iran war ends.”

“I would expect prices to be stable as mills look to maintain and head into contract negotiations in power.”

“Stable but more willingness by offshore suppliers to reduce prices.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Our demand is improving due to market share growth.”

“Plate demand is stable to improving.”

“Demand is stable-to-improving, which I love being able to say!”

“Stable as many projects are trying to get ahead of potential additional price increases.”

“Demand is stable, inventories remain low—so no one is backing off buying.”

“Stable, but very strong for our products.”

“I’d say that demand is coming down from some of the highs I’ve seen earlier this year. But demand is historically strong.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving faster, most customers are living hand-to-mouth.”

“Plate inventory is flying out the door, several holes in everyone’s inventory.”

“Inventory is moving pretty darn quickly, and we’re purposefully running hand-to-mouth/JIT.”

“Faster overall with a few monthly exceptions vs. last year.”

“Faster due to growth.”

“Faster because demand has increased from last year.”

“Much faster.”

“About the same.”

“Slower… we have no real inventory!”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Most buyers responding to this question (40%) were unsure how the policies will impact their business. A third (33%) felt their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs, and only 27% believed that the tariffs are helping their businesses. Comments included:

“I’m not sure. Overall raw materials prices are up considerably, but everyone has passed on those costs.”

“No, it is all just noise and setting fictional pricing levels.”

“No, they are creating shortages and increasing the cost of steel.”

“Yes, tariffs have helped inventory values maintain.”

“Yes, the economy seems strong.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Almost half of respondents (40%) said it is too early to tell, similar to recent surveys. Of the remainder, 33% reported they are not seeing any signs of reshoring, while 27% answered they have seen some evidence. Comments included:

“Too early to say. We have had more BABA requests, but nothing significant.”

“Too early to say. Capacity vs demand in North America is a problem to reshore products.”

“Too early to say. Tons of announcements, but demand has not reflected yet.”

“No. If you touch the wall and/or data centers, life is good. Otherwise, traditional demand still feels weak.”

“Yes. I’m hearing more and more about reshoring, it seems to have a little more momentum.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Imports are going to be a real story in Q4. They’re on the water/on order, and that will end this pricing rally.”

“Imports are always attractive.”

“As far as current prices go, absolutely.”

“Much more attractive. Offshore is cautiously navigating politics but willing to negotiate.”

“Imports are attractive from a price and need standpoint, but lead times are extended.”

“On light gauge painted.”

“Without quotas, yes, the price is more attractive. But if you get caught with the quota, then pricing is very high.”

“Plate imports are hit and miss on attractiveness due to lead time and suspect quality factors.”

“No due to tariffs.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Tariffs should have been a short-term tool but have now turned into a revenue stream that can’t be ignored.”

“Are we going to see any more big service center M&A activity before the market reverses? It feels frothy right about now.”

“Will the next president get rid of all of Trump’s protective tariffs?”

“Will union negotiations cause any disruptions as we approach Sept. 1?”

“Cost of electricity in the steelmaking market.”

“The economy is not bad.”

“Steel being consumed by AI data centers.”