International Monetary Fund economists forecast global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2018-19, 0.2 percentage point below their forecast six months ago. While still positive, the expansion has become less balanced and may have peaked in some major economies, the IMF reported in its October World Economic Outlook. Excerpts from the WEO report below clearly […]
The market has been searching for a bottom and perhaps found it this week as all the major flat rolled mills announced price hikes of $40 per ton on hot rolled, hot rolled P&O, cold rolled and galvanized steel products. Steel prices have seen a steady decline of around $80 per ton since this summer. […]
We saw more erosion in hot rolled steel prices this week based on the responses we received from our data providers throughout the day today. Benchmark hot rolled dropped to an average of $835 per ton, while other flat rolled products saw mixed results. Cold rolled rose as the low-end numbers disappeared from last week. […]
Planning activity for construction of nonresidential buildings declined in September, according to the latest Dodge Momentum Index. The Index slid 2.6 percent to a reading of 159.5. Both commercial and institutional planning projects were lower in September, falling 4.3 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. The Index has dropped for two consecutive months, but on a […]
I have chosen not to include the sub-$40 hot rolled being sold by JSW Ohio (former Mingo Junction/Acero Junction). The mill is using slabs and is having a difficult time getting the slabs from the port to their facility. This has led to some on-time issues. They have only sold about 20,000 tons, which is […]
We had a bit of a split regarding service center spot prices in the analysis we did of the flat rolled steel markets last week. Manufacturing companies overwhelmingly reported their steel service center suppliers as dropping flat rolled steel spot prices compared to what they were seeing just a couple of weeks ago. On the […]
Twice as many of the respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire expect flat rolled steel prices to remain the same or move higher. About 24 percent feel the downward price trend has bottomed, compared with 12 percent in last month’s returns. Steel Market Update’s current Price Momentum Indicator is pointing toward lower […]
Demand for steel products has been strong and improving for much of the year, but the findings of Steel Market Update’s latest flat rolled and plate steels market trends questionnaire show that more companies see demand for their products declining than increasing under the current market conditions. However, when you view the graph below, you […]
Net job creation in September totaled 134,000 positions. Construction and manufacturing gains were both strong. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees work in manufacturing and construction and the components of these two sectors of most relevance to steel […]
Construction in the United States is experiencing strong growth led by infrastructure expenditures, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Commerce Department data. On Oct. 1, Commerce released the construction put in place (CPIP) expenditures data for August. The growth of total construction on a rolling 12-month basis year over year increased from 2.1 […]
In an article last week, I overstated the amount of quota Brazil had for Galvalume. One of the other traders/mills was nice enough to provide me the accurate data. The yearly quota on AZ is 49,974.44 metric tons. The other flat rolled and plate product quotas out of Brazil are as follows: Hot rolled = […]
The attitudes of steel buyers and sellers, as measured by this week’s SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index questionnaire, are slightly more optimistic than they were last month. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), as well as […]
Lead times for most flat rolled steel products continue to shrink, according to returns from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill, and theoretically the more flexible the price. Lead times for […]
When it comes to haggling over steel prices with the mills, buyers retain a strong bargaining position. Steel Market Update tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel represent the mill negotiation position. More than eight out of 10 buyers report that mills are willing to negotiate spot prices on new orders placed this […]
U.S. automotive sales fell 5.5 percent year-over-year in September. Depending on one’s perspective, they were either good, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate 17.54 million, or a portent of worse times to come. General Motors, which no longer reports monthly sales, said third-quarter sales plunged 11 percent and estimates put September sales down a dismal […]
I am back in the office, at least for a few days, trying to catch up on paperwork that has been piling up, as well as working on our SMU Service Center Inventories report. I hope to have our “Flash” report out on Sunday. The “Flash” report gives a snapshot of how the data is […]
One more day in Chicago before I head back to my office in Florida. I have been attending the CRU North American Steel Conference. CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison spoke about President Trump doing what he promised he would do on the campaign trail. “If he said he is going to do X, then we […]
I am in Chicago for the start of the CRU North American Steel Conference on Monday. I am looking forward to attending my first CRU hosted conference. Tim Triplett and I will let you know what we learned during the conference in Tuesday’s and Thursday’s issues of Steel Market Update. I got a note from […]
Sales of new homes increased last month despite affordability issues related to building costs. Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.5 percent in August compared to July and were 12.7 percent higher than in August 2017. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was estimated at 629,000. Sales were strongest in the Northeast, soaring 47.8 percent from […]
I am back in my office after four very long days, mostly due to long and late flights to Minnesota, Pittsburgh and back to West Palm Beach. I will be in the office for most of the day on Friday should you need to reach me. I am off again on Sunday as I head […]
Home prices grew at a slower rate in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. The National Home Price NSA Index posted an annual gain of 6.0 percent, down from 6.2 percent in June. The 20-City Composite was at an 11-month low, posting a 5.9 percent year-over-year increase compared to 6.4 percent in […]
The number of flat rolled and plate spot transactions has dwindled over the past couple of weeks. End users are squeamish about ordering any steel other than what is needed for the work on the floor. Steel buyers are reporting a weakening of the top end of the range but firming at the lower ends. […]
As I mentioned in a recent newsletter, comments received from our readers will many times lead to an article, or even a series of articles. One of our goals is to dig into topics of interest to our readers from as many angles as possible, and then allow you to make your own conclusions. For […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has been treading water, albeit at optimistic levels, for the past six months. However, the attitudes of buyers and sellers about conditions in the steel market might be described as anywhere from cautious to tepid, judging by the comments provided in Steel Market Update’s latest Steel Buyers Sentiment Index […]
Lead times for most flat rolled steel products are about a week shorter than they were two months ago. Shorter lead times suggest that steel demand is easing. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill. Lead times for hot […]
The pendulum has definitely swung back in buyers’ favor when it comes to negotiating steel prices with the mills. Steel Market Update tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel represent the mill negotiation position. More than nine out of 10 buyers report that mills are willing to negotiate spot prices on hot rolled […]
Housing starts rebounded in August after a lackluster gain in July. Data from HUD and Commerce show new residential housing starts jumped 9.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,282,000 from the upwardly revised July SAAR of 1,174,000. Starts were 9.4 percent higher than August 2017. The increase took economists by surprise and […]
Existing-home sales were flat in August, halting a four-month decline, said the National Association of Realtors. Sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million last month, down 1.5 percent from a year ago. “Strong gains in the Northeast and a moderate uptick in the Midwest […]
First, I must warn steel buyers that the USW may be losing patience with U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal USA. We are monitoring the individual locals and we will report when we think something is going to break. The question right now is how long a leash is the union offering? As I said the other […]
Construction costs are escalating due to labor costs and tariffs on critical materials. Although declining 0.8 percent from July to August, prices for construction goods such as diesel fuel, steel, aluminum, asphalt and gypsum products have risen 6.2 percent since the beginning of the year, said the Associated General Contractors of America in a recent […]