Category: Analysis

Apparent US steel supply rebounded in December, but 2024 was still the lowest level for supply since 2020.

The new version of Section 232 goes into effect on 12:01 am ET on March 12, according to the executive order. The latest iteration of Section 232 removed quotas, exemptions, and other carve outs that had accumulated over years.

December 2024 marks the fourth month in a row that steel exports have declined, now at the lowest monthly rate recorded since December 2022.

US mills produced an estimated 1,675,000 short tons (st) of raw steel last week, the highest weekly rate recorded since mid-December according to data recently released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

The Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) has elected eight officers to serve on its 2025-27 SMA Executive Committee.

A comparison of the current cost of pig iron vs. busheling scrap.

An exciting first look at the results from SMU's first scrap survey.

Following the one-year low recorded in November, steel imports rose by 3% in December to 2.14 million short tons (st) according to final US Commerce Department data. January could be the highest month for steel imports witnessed in nearly three years.

Evraz, SSAB Americas, and Nucor have all followed up on their initial price bumps at the opening of their March order books with a second round of increases.

US rig counts remain marginally above multi-year lows. The drop in Canadian activity comes just one week after reaching a near seven-year high.

Targets include coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil, and other commodities

A look at US curbside operators concerns about new deposit legislation for used beverage cans.

After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.

As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.

While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.

ArcelorMittal is targeting a minimum base price of $800 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. The steelmaker is also seeking $1,050/st for cold-rolled product and $1,000/st for coated material, according to a letter to customers dated Wednesday.

Steel mill negotiation rates have declined in each of our last two surveys; this week’s rate is the lowest recorded since March 2024.

While Canada and Mexico bent the knee to push tariff implementation out another month, the US on Tuesday instituted an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

We joked in our last Final Thoughts that Wiley trade attorney Tim Brightbill – one of the nation’s leading experts on trade law and policy – would probably be revising his presentation on Trump, trade policy, and tariffs for the Tampa Steel Conference. He did. And even after those last-minute revisions, he actually got trumped […]

SMU’s steel price indices rose across the board this week. Sheet prices increased as much as $35 per short ton (st) compared to last week, while our average plate price ticked up by$10/st.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our latest report includes data updated through January 31st.

The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!

U.S. Steel has increased sheet prices by $50 per short ton (st), according to market participants. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker has also set a new target price of $800/st for hot-rolled (HR) coil, they said.

On Jan. 18, Teck Resources announced that it expects its Trail smelter in Canada to produce 190,000 to 230,000 metric tons (mt) in 2025, down 10-25% from its 256,000 mt output in 2024. The company announced that the lower output was to maximize profitability and value amid the current tightness in zinc concentrate availability relative […]

The number of active drill rigs operating in the US and Canada increased this week, according to Baker Hughes

Hitting Canada with a 25% tariff could allow imported goods from other origins at proposed 10%-20% tariffs.

From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.

Prices for the seven steelmaking raw materials SMU tracks moved in differing directions from December to January, according to our latest analysis.

USMCA is option 1 but will cost more or not be big enough

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.