Category: Analysis

The US and Mexico announced measures on Wednesday to prevent tariff evasion and protect North America’s steel and aluminum industries.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Flat-rolled steel prices have been largely falling since the beginning of the year. Even after a slight bump in early April when mills tried to halt the downtrend, the decrease resumed.

US sheet prices saw a similar pattern this week, customary for much of the year – new week, lower prices. Domestic tags moved lower this week, aligning with the typically slower summer period – but maybe a further indication of dwindling demand.

Domestic raw steel production tumbled last week to the lowest rate seen in five-months, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

The volume of steel shipped into Vietnam more than doubled in May to 1.1 million (mt), with China’s share above 70%, according to customs’ statistics. In the first five months, Chinese imports were more than 4.7 million mt, an increase of 91% year on year.

Canada’s industry minister Francois-Philippe Champagne has conditionally allowed a Glencore-led consortium to acquire Teck’s Elk Valley Resources (EVR) metallurgical coal business for $6.9 billion. He also raised the bar for foreign companies wanting to buy into the country’s critical mineral resources.

Nucor has kept its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil flat this week.

First off, we hope everyone had a safe and happy July 4th holiday, with fireworks seen and BBQs attended. Many parts of the country are quite toasty at the moment, signaling that, yes, summer has indeed arrived. And looking at our most recent survey results, the summer doldrums have arrived as well.

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.”

Data on US industrial production, capacity utilization, new orders and inventories all held steady through the latest figures, indicating a stable and healthy manufacturing sector. The strength of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices dropped this week, with Current Sentiment plummeting to a level not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to our most recent survey data.

Steel mill lead times remain near some of the lowest levels witnessed in months, according to our latest market canvass to steel service centers and manufacturers.

Sheet steel buyers found mills more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week, according to our most recent survey data.

Most longs prices in the US were unchanged this month, except for rebar, which declined by $1.50/cwt ($30/short ton) m/m. While end-use demand is stable, inventories are well-stocked, keeping purchases limited. Domestic availability is sufficient to meet current demand, hindering the appetite for imported material. Meanwhile, prices for scrap remained under pressure in June, with […]

Steel Market Update’s offices will be closed on July 4th for Independence Day.

US sheet prices moved lower again this week, continuing a trend seen since early April. The slowdown aligns with the typical summer doldrums, when lax demand and shorter lead times often take center stage. The current market is also characterized by ample supply and concerns about restocking – especially with few signs of a bottom […]

It’s been a slow start to the week as far as news goes, something you’d expect ahead of a shortened Independence Day week. That said, it’s not as if transactions have completely ground to a halt. (Prices continue to drift lower.) And while news might be slow, rumors of low-priced deals, price hikes, and trade cases seem to have filled that void.

Domestic plate prices have been on a historic run since they began surging in January 2021. Tags reached an all-time high of $1,940 per short ton (st) in May 2022, though they have mostly trended lower over the past two years.

July is less than a week away, which means SMU’s Steel Summit in August is just around the corner.

Low global sheet demand continued to weigh on prices around the world this week. In the US, mills were forced to remain aggressive to secure orders during this period of demand weakness. And compounded by recent new capacity ramp-ups, has forced US hot rolled (HR) coil prices down closer to levels seen in offshore markets. […]

Offshore cold-rolled (CR) coil remains cheaper than domestic product pricing even as US CR coil prices slip to an eight-month low. Domestic CR coil tags stood at $975 per short ton (st) on average in our check of the market on Tuesday, June 25, down $20/st from the week before. Domestic CR prices are, on […]

A roundup of aluminum news from CRU.

It was great to have Gary Stein, CEO of Triple-S Steel, join SMU for a Community Chat earlier this week. (Btw, you can find a record of the webinar here.) We covered a lot of ground. From Andrew Carnegie and the Johnstown Flood to the current steel market and the state of domestic manufacturing broadly speaking. One thing that stuck with me was how unevenly construction spending appears to be on “green” initiatives and other key items funded by infrastructure spending, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS Act.

Following a relatively stable first quarter, steel imports climbed in May to levels not seen in over two-years, according to preliminary Census data released earlier this week. Projected June license data suggests imports could ease from May, though still strong in comparison to levels witnessed over the past year.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

US sheet prices continue to fall, with SMU’s average hot-rolled (HR) coil price now at $670 per short ton (st). Prices for cold-rolled and coated products are now in the mid/high $900s/st. As I noted in my last Final thoughts, the consensus among our readers is that prices will bottom out in July. And that makes intuitive sense. Lead times in mid/late July should be stretching into the typically busier fall months. The question then is where prices bottom.

We have heard ominous warnings about a flood of Mexican steel threatening the US market. It's the kind of rhetoric that gets thrown around often with little regard for the facts. The reality is that the Mexican steel surge is simply not happening, and the US steel industry has consistently maintained a significant trade surplus in finished products with Mexico. In 2023 alone, this surplus exceeded $3 billion.

Domestic raw steel production ticked up last week following a seven-week low, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Many of our contacts remain bearish about the very short-term direction of steel prices. But a consensus seems to be forming, according to our latest survey results, that a bottom will occur in July. Consensus is also that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won't fall below $600 per short ton (st).