Category: Analysis

The strong resilience of iron ore prices has come to an end with the weak steel performance worldwide and significantly improved iron ore availability in China.

IAI reports aluminum industry greenhouse gas emissions declined in 2022.

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index eased to an eight-week low, according to our most recent survey data.

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, […]

I want to give a big shoutout to the good folks at the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association (FMA) for inviting me to their annual conference this week in Clearwater, Fla. I also want to give a special thanks to the FMA for awarding SMU founder John Packard with a lifetime achievement award – on that also gave me a chance to catch up with my old boss in person.

Steel mill lead times shrunk by an average of 0.3 weeks, according to our latest market survey, now nearing levels last seen in September of last year.

Steel buyers generally found mills more willing to negotiate spot pricing on the products SMU surveys this week, according to our most recent survey data.

What are some “Black Swans” to watch out for? With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, your mind might understandably move to conflicts overseas. Here is one closer to home to consider: US trade relations with Mexico taking a turn for the worse. I mention that because the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) dropped a (virtual) bombshell earlier this month.

January’s import level was even higher than an earlier license count had suggested, making it the highest month for imports since June 2023.

Falling US sheet prices have reduced the attractiveness of hot-rolled (HR) coil imports as domestic mills price competitively to secure limited business. However, tightness in the CR coil market has extended delivery to June or July in some cases, and buyers may consider to import given competitive prices and arrival times.

Domestic prices have been sliding since the beginning of the year, and I don’t see any obvious reasons why the slide might stop this week. But let’s put the timing of a bottom aside for a minute. The question among some of you seems to be whether we’ll see another price spike, or at least a “dead-cat bounce,” before the typical summer doldrums kick in.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai has voiced the United States’ unease at a marked increase in steel and aluminum imports from Mexico, and what she termed a lack of transparency about Mexican imports of the metals from third countries.

Kimberly A. Fields, current president of specialty metals producer ATI, has been named president and CEO of the Dallas-based company, effective July 1. Fields has served as COO of ATI since 2022 and president since July 2023. Prior to joining the company in 2019, she worked for IDEX Corp., Evraz, and GE. Fields will succeed […]

Global steel output moved up in January, recovering from consecutive declines in November and December, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) said in its latest monthly report.

In the period between mid-February and mid-March, CRU forecasts global demand for steelmaking raw materials to change little from the previous month,but buying activity will improve towards the end of next month

At SMU, our goal is not to tell you what to think but to keep the conversation going. We asked you in our survey this week what you were seeing when it comes to steel prices, demand, imports, and wildcards. In your own words, with minimal editing, here’s what some of you in the SMU community shared with us this week.

I’ve had discussions with some of you lately about where and when sheet prices might bottom. Some of you say that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won’t fall below $800 per short ton (st). Others tell me that bigger buyers aren’t interested unless they can get something that starts with a six. Obviously a lot depends on whether we're talking 50 tons or 50,000 tons. I've even gotten some guff about how the drop in US prices is happening only because we’re talking about it happening.

Canada will soon require steel imports to report “country of melt and pour” information.

North American auto assemblies recovered in January after a usual seasonal slowdown at year-end, according to LMC Automotive data. The result was driven by improved production across the region vs. December’s output.

US light-vehicle (LV) sales rose to an unadjusted 1.08 million units in January, up 2.8% vs. year-ago levels, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. Despite the year-on-year (y/y) boost, domestic LV sales were down 5.6% month on month (m/m). On an annualized basis, LV sales were 15 million units in January, down from […]

Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index has moved lower, having remained in contraction territory for the better part of the past two months, according to our latest survey data.

Falling steel prices at present are not a symptom of demand but of imports arriving into the US and to some parts of Mexico, Ternium’s CEO Maximo Vedoya said this week.

We’ve all heard a lot about mill “discipline” following a wave of consolidation over the last few years. That discipline is often evident when prices are rising, less so when they are falling. I remember hearing earlier this year that mills weren’t going to let hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fall below $1,000 per short ton (st). Then not below $900/st. Now, some of you tell me that HR prices in the mid/high-$800s are the “1-800 price” – widely available to regular spot buyers. So what comes next, and will mills “hold the line” in the $800s?

The Italian government says it will appoint commissioners with specific steel-sector expertise in the coming days to assume control of the Taranto works, which is majority owned by ArcelorMittal.

Everyone knows the old saying that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Just because it’s a cliché doesn’t mean that it’s wrong. A lot of inked has been spilled trying to figure out why prices are falling now. I thought it might be as simple as this: Market dynamics in the fourth quarter (UAW strike, companies buying ahead of an anticipated post-strike price spike, etc.) pulled forward restocking activity that typically happens in the first quarter.

The CRUmpi declined by 1.7% month over month (m/m) to 325.2 in February, compared to a 4.3% m/m increase in February 2023.

What's the steel market talking about at present?

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, […]

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index was flat this week, while the Future Sentiment Index slipped, according to our most recent survey data.

The LME 3-month price was broadly stable again on the morning of Feb. 16, and was last seen trading at $2,230 per metric ton (mt). On Feb. 16, LME stocks were reported at 534,925 mt, an increase of nearly 10,000 mt from last Friday. The change comes after 15,125 mt of metal was delivered into […]