SMU Data and Models
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SMU market survey results now available
Written by David Schollaert & Michael Cowden
June 7, 2024
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.”
Historical survey results are also available under that selection.
If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Key points and takeaways
We go over the big highlights of the survey in Final Thoughts. Here are some other key points that we think are worth your time. (And, again, our premium subscribers can follow along with the latest results here.)
- Lead times remain short/normal (slide 13). And depending on the product, 75-90% of buyers surveyed said mills were willing to negotiate lower prices (slide 16).
- The drop in June scrap prices caught many by surprise (slide 19). Nearly 60% had expected stable or higher prices.
- About one-third of respondents said they missed forecast last month (slide 20). That’s the highest such reading we’ve seen in a while.
- Nearly 70% of service centers say they are releasing less steel (slide 28). And 65% saying they are lowering prices. None say they are increasing them (slide 38).
That’s a little dark. Is it the summer doldrums? Or is it an indication that steel demand is cooling off?
On the bright side, buyer sentiment – despite everything above – improved notably (slides 9-12).
Some of you have told us you’re seeing the highest levels of imports in recent memory, especially when it comes to coated products. Import license data backs that up.
But our survey suggests the days of high import volumes might be numbered. Nearly 90% of trader respondents say they’re seeing a decrease in orders from North American buyers (slide 50). And only 57% of service center respondents said they found current import pricing attractive, down from 85% in mid-March/early April (slide 48).
My guess is July import volumes will come in a lot lower than what we’ve seen this spring.
There’s a lot more in there to unpack. I haven’t even gotten into the comments – all insightful, some a little to spicy for print – we’ve received. Check out Final Thoughts for some of those.
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David Schollaert
Read more from David Schollaert![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/02/SMU_MC_headshot-150x150.png)
Michael Cowden
Read more from Michael CowdenLatest in SMU Data and Models
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Steelmaking raw material prices ease in July
The majority of steelmaking raw material prices declined in June, following the same trend seen in May, according to SMU’s latest analysis.
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SMU price ranges: HR declines moderate. Are we near a bottom?
SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.
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Some SMU Key Market Indicators improve, others remain near historic lows
SMU’s Key Market Indicators include data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and steel sheet and long products. They offer a snapshot of current sentiment and the near-term expected trajectory of the economy. All told, nine key indicators point lower, 16 are neutral, and 13 point higher. One thing worth noting: The nine indicators pointing lower are all lagging indicators. Many of those pointing upward are leading indicators.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebound
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both saw improvement this week. Current sentiment ticked higher but remains near the four-year low seen earlier this month. Future Sentiment continues to indicate that buyers are optimistic for future business conditions.
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SMU market survey results now available
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your […]