The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Business Outlook was stronger than expected in April. The index for current activity increased from 5.0 in March to 7.5, beating economist expectations of a reading of 6. The index has been in single digits so far this year indicating only modest growth. The new orders index registered 0.7, a […]
U.S. senators are hoping to present a bipartisan trade promotion authority (TPA) bill to Congress this afternoon (April 16) that will “fast track” trade agreements. The TPA defines U.S. negotiating objectives and priorities for trade agreements and establishes consultation and notification requirements for the President to follow. A trade agreement would then be presented by […]
The following is a global forecast provided by the IMF this week. We provided an abridged statement from the IMF which is then followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. This is a piece normally reserved for our Premium members but […]
The following article is was provided to our Premium customers on Friday afternoon, and we felt it would be a good article to share with our Executive members as an example of what a Premium level membership has to offer. We also published Imports by Product, Port, and Country and our Market Survey Results to […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both supply and mill shipments of sheet […]
Steel buyers in the March 2015 ISM Steel Buyers Survey were a bit more consensus about economic activity in the next six months. In February, respondents were evenly split on whether conditions would go up, remain the same or go down. In the March survey, 46.2 percent expect conditions to remain the same while 30.8 […]
The Bureau of labor Statistics, (BLS) reported on Friday: “Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 126,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade, while mining lost jobs. The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their March report on April 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January, to 52.9 in February and to 51.5 in March. Any […]
Global manufacturing continues to expand at a slow and steady pace. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 51.8 from 51.9 in February. Manufacturing growth has been sustained for twenty-eight consecutive months. “The March PMI surveys suggest that the global manufacturing sector continued to make steady progress, with rates of expansion in output and new […]
In the table below, Steel Market Update provides a snapshot look at various flat rolled steel pricing, commodities which impact steel prices and economic data of importance to the flat rolled steel industry. One of the first items you will notice on the end of month table provided is we moved our Price Momentum indicator […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board increased in March and February’s disappointing decline was lessened by an upward revision. In March the composite value which combines the view of the present situation and expectations rose from 98.8 to 101.3. The view of the present situation fell from 112.1 to 109.1 (but […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rose slightly in March after hitting a five and a half year low in February. The MNI Indicators survey of purchasing and supply professionals rose 0.5 points to 46.3 in March. However, any level below 50.0 indicates business conditions are shrinking and not increasing so the 46.3 number is not a […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q4 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate of 4th quarter GDP was unchanged from the second estimate which was 2.2 percent but down from the first estimate which was 2.64 […]
New orders for durable goods in February fell by 1.4 percent from January’s level to $231.3 billion; economists had expected a 0.3 percent gain. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell by 1.0 percent. There has been a sharp deviation from the trend line in the last three months (Figure 1). The huge spike in […]
This month we will start with words from Armada Executive intelligence which sum up the present situation nicely: “Last week it was made abundantly clear just how sensitive the markets are to the discussions at the Fed. There was a perception that Janet Yelled was pushing an interest rate increase off to at least September. […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.8 for February a slight increase of 0.08 from January. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.87, down by 0.17 from January which was the highest value ever and the ninth straight month where the […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide at Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end of this piece. This is normally an article reserved for […]
According to the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report for March 2015, little change is expected in general business conditions during the next three months. PMA manufacturing members expect new orders to be the same or slightly higher in the coming months. Shipping levels were reported as steady in the March report and average […]
The Architecture Billings Index inched up slightly in February after falling below the neutral point in January. The ABI, which reflects the nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending, registered 50.4, up from 49.9 the previous month. Any score over 50 indicates an increase in billings. The ABI has been […]
CHICAGO — The Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) is proud to announce the 2014 recipient of the Steel Man of the Year Award is Michael G. Rippey, chairman of ArcelorMittal USA in Chicago, Illinois. The industry’s highest honor, this annual ASD award recognizes one individual who embodies leadership, dedication, service and excellence in the steel […]
New York manufacturing activity slowed in March as the pace of new orders and shipments weakened. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicated general business conditions fell slightly to 6.9 from 7.78 in February and 10.0 in January. Analysts had expected the index to register around 8.0 […]
The following article is usually available to our Premium level members only. This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment reported that 295,000 jobs were added in February, the January result was revised down by 18,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of gains through February was 288,000. This job recovery is now seen to be much stronger than was the case in the mid-2000s […]
Steel buyers in the February ISM Steel Buyers Survey appeared confused about what the future may hold. There was no consensus on what the trend for general economic activity will be in the next six months. Respondents were split evenly on whether activity would be up, the same or down. This contrasted with January in […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their February report on March 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January and to 52.9 in February. The three month moving average […]
Twenty-seven months of consecutive global manufacturing growth was marked by the JP Morgan Global PMI in February. The headline index rose to 52.0 from 51.7 in January. The United States continued to be the prime driver of global growth with the Markit U.S. PMI increasing to 55.1 from 53.9 in January. Mexico showed strong growth […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
The Chicago Business Barometer fell to a five and one-half year low in February. The MNI Indicators survey of purchasing and supply professionals plunged 13.6 points to 45.8 in February. It was the first contraction of the Barometer since April 2013 and the lowest level since July 2009. The West Coast port slowdown and frigid […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined in February after a very strong increase in January. In addition, the January results were revised upwards. In February the composite fell from 103.8 to 96.4, the view of the present situation fell from 113.9 to 110.2 as expectations fell from 97.0 to 87.2. […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Wednesday reported January results. We run this analysis every three months to give readers an opportunity to […]