The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide at Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end of this piece. This is normally an article reserved for […]
According to the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report for March 2015, little change is expected in general business conditions during the next three months. PMA manufacturing members expect new orders to be the same or slightly higher in the coming months. Shipping levels were reported as steady in the March report and average […]
The Architecture Billings Index inched up slightly in February after falling below the neutral point in January. The ABI, which reflects the nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending, registered 50.4, up from 49.9 the previous month. Any score over 50 indicates an increase in billings. The ABI has been […]
CHICAGO — The Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) is proud to announce the 2014 recipient of the Steel Man of the Year Award is Michael G. Rippey, chairman of ArcelorMittal USA in Chicago, Illinois. The industry’s highest honor, this annual ASD award recognizes one individual who embodies leadership, dedication, service and excellence in the steel […]
New York manufacturing activity slowed in March as the pace of new orders and shipments weakened. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicated general business conditions fell slightly to 6.9 from 7.78 in February and 10.0 in January. Analysts had expected the index to register around 8.0 […]
The following article is usually available to our Premium level members only. This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment reported that 295,000 jobs were added in February, the January result was revised down by 18,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of gains through February was 288,000. This job recovery is now seen to be much stronger than was the case in the mid-2000s […]
Steel buyers in the February ISM Steel Buyers Survey appeared confused about what the future may hold. There was no consensus on what the trend for general economic activity will be in the next six months. Respondents were split evenly on whether activity would be up, the same or down. This contrasted with January in […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their February report on March 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January and to 52.9 in February. The three month moving average […]
Twenty-seven months of consecutive global manufacturing growth was marked by the JP Morgan Global PMI in February. The headline index rose to 52.0 from 51.7 in January. The United States continued to be the prime driver of global growth with the Markit U.S. PMI increasing to 55.1 from 53.9 in January. Mexico showed strong growth […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
The Chicago Business Barometer fell to a five and one-half year low in February. The MNI Indicators survey of purchasing and supply professionals plunged 13.6 points to 45.8 in February. It was the first contraction of the Barometer since April 2013 and the lowest level since July 2009. The West Coast port slowdown and frigid […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined in February after a very strong increase in January. In addition, the January results were revised upwards. In February the composite fell from 103.8 to 96.4, the view of the present situation fell from 113.9 to 110.2 as expectations fell from 97.0 to 87.2. […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Wednesday reported January results. We run this analysis every three months to give readers an opportunity to […]
The PMA and ILWU released a joint statement Friday evening that a tentative agreement has been reached on a new five year contract covering port workers on the West Coast. After nine months of trading blame for slowdowns and congestion at the ports, the White House sent Labor Secretary Tom Perez to hammer out an […]
United Steelworkers representing the nations refineries turned down a seventh contract offer from Shell Oil Co. Negotiations, which began January 1, took a one week hiatus before resuming on Wednesday and ending in frustration on Friday. The USW said the latest offer from Shell, which is leading the contract negotiations for the U.S. refineries, “failed […]
Those of us near the Great Lakes (presently experiencing minus degree temperatures and seemingly endless snow) are beginning to wonder if winter 2015 is a repeat of 2014. Last year the Great Lakes had unprecedented ice coverage. The Great Lakes shipping season was delayed into April with cargo shipments plummeting by nearly 7 million tons […]
Metal forming companies expressed less optimism in the February Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Out of a sampling of 119 metal forming companies in the U.S. and Canada, only 33 percent of participants expect economic activity to improve over the next three months, down from 45 percent in January. Incoming orders are expected […]
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) released their Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month of January on Wednesday this week, reporting that the latest index is at a nine month low. The ABI score for January was 49.9, down 2.8 points from December’s score of 52.7. Note that the index is centered around […]
The first graphic depicted below shows published Chinese data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q4 2014. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters and has been declining since Q1 2010. […]
Manufacturing activity in New York expanded at a modest pace in February according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business index dipped two points to register 7.8. The index for new orders was down five points to 1.2 indicating flat activity. Shipments rose 4.5 points to 14.1. Delivery times were relatively unchanged […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
The Coface Group, a worldwide leader in credit insurance, publishes country risk assessments for 160 countries, based on its unique knowledge of company payment behavior and on the expertise of 350 underwriters located close to clients and their debtors. The following a reprint of their risk outlook for 2015. Laborious Global Recovery, Subject to Multiple […]
Dry cargo rates continue to plummet as the Baltic Dry Cargo index dropped to record lows last week. The index fell to 553 on Wednesday and continued to slide downward to end the week at 530 points. MID-SHIP says shipowners and operators are suffering major revenue losses, with one owner/operator declaring bankruptcy last week. Charterers […]
Operations were terminated at West Coast ports by the Pacific Maritime Association over the weekend. On Monday, the ILWU issued the following statement regarding the re-opening of the ports. “West Coast ports re-opened Monday morning after employers closed the docks for two days, increasing delays for customers needing containers. The union remains focused on reaching […]
The following article was taken from the Armada Corporate Intelligence Report dated February 11,2015. The report is written by Dr. Chris Kuehl and his business partner, Keith Prather. Dr. Kuehl spoke at our last Steel Summit Conference in September 2014 and will once again be a keynote speaker for our 2015 Steel Summit Conference on […]
The USW oil refinery strike has expanded to 11 plants and is nearing the end of its second week. Over 3,800 workers are now actively striking, protesting unsafe conditions and use of unskilled contractors. The latest facilities to be affected by the strike are British Petroleum (BP) refineries in Whiting, Indiana and Toledo, Ohio, joining […]
Last month we began to report on domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to be able to compare side by side demand and the degree to which imports have absorbed that demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by […]
The Q1 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on February 2nd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 73 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 257,000 jobs were added in January. As we were analyzing this date we noticed massive historical revisions and had to go back to January 2000 (15 years!) before were confident we had caught them all. In the 12 months of 2014, job creation […]