Category: Features

Let's see what SMU survey respondents are saying about Trump's tariffs.

SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.

Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.

The Tariff Town amusement park ride shows no signs of slowing down.

Domestic mill output continues to grow, with raw steel production rising last week to the highest rate recorded since last September, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

The volume of finished steel entering the US market rebounded in March, according to our analysis of US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

A Pennsylvania state senator plans to submit legislation to incentivize steelmaking in the state.

The UK deal may signal relaxation of the heaviest tariffs. The suspension of the reciprocal tariffs greater than 10% - remember, 57 countries were hit with that - ends on July 9. But it could be extended. If more deals like the one with the UK are struck, the suspensions may continue to permit more agreements - relieving global markets of considerable worry.

Shipments of water heaters, air conditioner/heat pumps, and warm-air furnaces all increased from February to March. Total monthly shipments are now at a seven-month high.

However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.

Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined again this week in the US and Canada, according to Baker Hughes.

The volume of steel exported from the US marginally increased from February to March, according to the latest US Department of Commerce figures. Although up month over month (m/m), export levels have generally trended downward over the past year.  

Cliffs came tantalizing close to buying U.S. Steel in 2023. There were rumors in 2024 that Cliffs might buy NLMK USA before it ultimately purchased Stelco for $2.5 billion in November of last year. Who would have thought that asset sales would have been the focal point of discussion just six months later?

US steel imports rebounded from February to March, rising to the second-highest monthly rate witnessed in the past ten months, according to final data recently released by the US Commerce Department. April license data shows that gain has likely been erased, with trade falling to the lowest rate of the year and several product categories hitting multi-year lows.

The US and UK governments have announced a trade deal in which an “alternative” to the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs will be provided.

SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics earlier this week, including market prices and demand, tariffs and reshoring, inventories and imports, and evolving market trends.

US Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ohio) and Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.) have written a letter in support of a “domestically owned and operated American steel industry” being vital to national security.

SunCoke Energy posted lower earnings in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the company said it has extended the cokemaking contract for U.S. Steel’s Granite City Works in Illinois through the end of September 2025.

Given the news about tariffs and bringing back industries to the US, a brief look back in time may show how our economy changes with technological advances and the shifting economies of scale. 

Raw steel mill output ticked higher last week, now up to the highest weekly rate recorded in over seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

AMU’s Greg Wittbecker, an aluminum industry veteran, will address not only US tariffs but also evolving trade routes - and how supply chains are (or aren’t) adjusting. He’ll also touch on broader industrial impacts, from auto layoffs to the potential ripple effect of maritime tax policies.

We’ve talked about tariffs ad nauseam for much of the year. And I’m afraid this topic isn’t going away anytime soon. There’s a feeling that the tariff “can” will just be kicked down the road again and again, and again.

The tariffs are intended to produce more investment and jobs in US manufacturing. But first, there will be a cosmic change, potentially wiping out millions of jobs in the short run. While administration officials will no doubt cringe at the comparison, it reminds me of the effort to undercut fossil fuels production to address climate change. Led by Democrats, the effort was to destroy fossil fuels so that renewable energy sources would have more space to grow. The result: inflation and electoral defeat in 2024.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through April 30.

The US Commerce Department has set up an “inclusions process” to add derivative aluminum and steel articles within the scope of the new Section 232 tariffs.

With so much happening in the news cycle, we want to make it easier. Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both improved this week, reversing the decline seen two weeks ago.

Brent Wilson talks about the different takes on President Trump's tariffs in Europe and the US.