Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker for Steel Market Update’s first Community Chat webinar of 2022 on Wednesday, Jan. 5. We’ll discuss the big issues – the great debates – that will drive steel markets next year: • Will we see continued solid demand in 2022 or a “great unwind”? • […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz It’s a new year and a new start on many things. COVID does not appear to be one of them, but China relations may be. At the beginning of 2020, China and the U.S. agreed to settle some of their trade differences by inking a deal that reduced some U.S. […]
U.S. President Joe Biden has officially implemented a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) that will ease Section 232 restrictions on steel from the European Union. “I have determined that specified volumes of eligible steel … imports from the EU will no longer threaten to impair the national security,” Biden wrote in a presidential proclamation. The president did […]
Steel Market Update is taking some time off for Christmas and for the New Year. That means we will not publish issues on Sunday, Dec. 26, Tuesday, Dec. 28, Thursday, Dec. 30, and Sunday, Jan. 2. We will in addition not update prices on Tuesday, Dec. 28. We will resume our regular publication schedule – as […]
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Tonight’s issue will be the final one for this year. We will pick up publishing our newsletters again on Tuesday, Jan. 4. The first thing I want to do tonight is to thank every one of our members for their support over this past year. In light of the […]
Welcome back to those who took an extra day or two off after the New Year. This is my first article of the year as Michael and Tim continue to absorb more of my workload. For those of you who did not view or listen in on the SMU Community Chat we hosted yesterday with […]
There’s surprisingly little consensus among market participants about where steel prices will be next year, even though 2022 is just around the corner. That’s a big departure from the last 12 months, when respondents to Steel Market Update surveys were roughly in agreement on where prices would be in the future – or at the very least […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has not reacted much to declining steel prices. Perhaps because prices remain well above historical averages even after big declines – more than 18% when it comes to hot-rolled coil – over the past three months. Indeed, 2021 was a record year for many companies, leaving […]
In line with the declining steel prices, lead times for spot orders from the mills continue to shorten with the average for hot rolled now below five weeks and cold rolled and galvanized now below eight weeks, based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday. Lead times for all products […]
As the upward slope of the green bars in the charts below clearly illustrate, the bargaining position in steel price negotiations has been steadily shifting in favor of steel buyers for the past three months. Since September 2020, it had been a seller’s market, with steel in short supply. Until lately, the mills have had […]
First the takeaway: Don’t overthink it on the way down. Prices are falling, like it or not. The good thing, demand is still good – so don’t let falling prices ruin your holidays. Now, let’s overthink it a little. We’ve seen some chunky declines in recent weeks: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price fell $70 per ton […]
A&T Stainless – a joint venture between Allegheny Technologies and China’s Tsingshan Group – has filed a request with the Commerce Department asking for a Section 232 tariff exclusion to import hot-band coils from Indonesia. If granted, A&T intends to restart the Midland, Pa., Direct Roll Anneal and Pickle (DRAP) line that was idled in July […]
The Commerce Department has declined to initiate a duty-circumvention case filed by Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) against Vietnamese coated flat-rolled steel made from Japanese substrate The decision came on the heels of opposition from big foreign mills, major steel importers and exporters, as well as lobbying groups in Japan and Vietnam. “Commerce finds that SDI did […]
Market forces are beginning to restore equilibrium to some parts of the economy, but not to others, said supply-chain expert Tom Derry, CEO of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Supply constraints will continue to be a drag on economic recovery in 2022, along with inflation and labor issues, he said during Steel Market Update’s […]
Just as steel mill lead times are leading indicators of steel prices, steel industry lead times may prove to be leading indicators of price trends for other commodities. As my colleague Michael Cowden reported Wednesday during SMU’s Community Chat with Tom Derry of the Institute for Supply Management, mill lead times on spot orders of […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz This is the last trade and tariff update for 2021, definitely an eventful year. We have gone from a riot at the Capitol, to a surge in COVID, widespread vaccinations (but still not enough for “herd immunity,” whatever that is), more foreign policy crises in Taiwan, China, Ukraine, Afghanistan, historic […]
SMU is pleased to announce that Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our first Community Chat webinar of 2022. We’ll discuss the big issues – the great debates – that will drive steel markets next year: * Will we see continued solid demand in 2022 or a “great unwind”? […]
SMU is pleased to announce that Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our first Community Chat webinar of 2022. We’ll discuss the big issues – the great debates – that will drive steel markets next year: • Will we see continued solid demand in 2022 or a “great unwind”? […]
We are quickly coming up to the Christmas and New Year’s Holidays. I hope everyone has been able to complete whatever shopping you need to do, sent out your cards and notes to your family and friends, and have ample snacks to get you through New Year’s Eve gatherings, football games, board or card games, […]
Monthly Key Market Indicators, as analyzed by Steel Market Update, continued their shift to a neutral position over the past month with positive indicators eroding further, slipping for the sixth successive month. What began as a typical summer slowdown, worsened by a surge in Delta cases and a less-than-ideal job market, has been compounded by […]
Flat Rolled = 57.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 60.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories rose again in November, according to Steel Market Update data. At the end of November, service centers carried 57.1 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, compared to 56.7 shipping days […]
Steel prices fell hard again this week. While the absolute numbers – down $60 per ton ($3 per cwt) on hot-rolled coil – might appear shocking at first glance, one could make the case that we’re being conservative. The development shouldn’t have come as a surprise to those who lived through past ups and downs. […]
Institute for Supply Management® CEO Tom Derry will join SMU for our next Community Chat on Wednesday, Dec. 15 at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT). ISM is the first and largest supply management association in the world. And so Tom Derry is in a great position to put vexing problems like port congestion in […]
Inflation and COVID have something in common. Both are invisible to the naked eye yet will color the economic picture in 2022. And both may make their presence known next year with painful consequences. Turns out Steel Market Update readers are more fearful of the fiscal bug than the physical one. Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this […]
On Friday, the Labor Department announced the inflation rate for November. At 0.8%, it was a tick lower than the October inflation rate of 0.9%. But most observers paid more attention to the annual rate of inflation. At 6.8% compared to prices one year ago, the inflation rate was the highest it’s been since 1982. […]
Institute for Supply Management® CEO Tom Derry will join SMU for our next Community Chat on Wednesday, Dec. 15, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT). ISM is the first and largest supply management association in the world. Tom will put vexing problems like port congestion in the context of global supply chain trends and […]
With 2022 just around the corner, steel buyers are looking back at one of the most profitable years in their history – thanks to all-time-high steel prices seen in 2021. That explains some of the staying power of lofty readings in Steel Market Update’s Sentiment Index. SMU surveys buyers every two weeks and asks how they view […]
Flat-rolled steel inventories continue to rise at service centers, and steel buyers are not flocking to do their normal end-of-year deals with steel mills. Steel Market Update has not yet produced our final Service Center Inventories and Shipment report. But we have published our “Flash” report, which we provide to our data providers after collecting five […]
Lead times for steel sheet and plate continued to decline over the past two weeks, shortening by an average of more than a week. The move correlates with a sharp downtrend in steel prices. Steel Market Update’s latest check of the market shows the average lead time for hot rolled orders nearing five weeks. Cold rolled […]
The pendulum has passed bottom and finally begun to swing the other way in price negotiations. Steel mills no longer hold a dominant bargaining position over spot buyers. That shift is consistent with the shortening lead times and declining prices reported by Steel Market Update. SMU asks buyers every two weeks whether mills are willing […]