Pricing from the mills is considerably tighter than it was a month ago, when virtually every deal was open to negotiation. Yet Steel Market Update data indicates the flat rolled mills are still surprisingly flexible when it comes to spot prices even as they work to collect two $40 price increases announced in the past […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have lengthened by roughly a week following the mills’ price increase announcements over the past month. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. Thus, this data indicates the mills have gotten busier as buyers step up to place […]
The U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization singled out China on Tuesday for its withdrawal from the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity. In comments delivered at the WTO Committee on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, Ambassador Dennis Shea said it was “regrettable” that China chose to terminate its membership in the Global Forum. “Unfortunately, […]
So, tonight I thought I would write about a couple of text messages that I received over the past 24 hours. Both messages have to do with steel prices, just looking at information out of SMU and other publications or indices differently. The first message was from the president of a Midwest-based service center. They […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, Steel Market Update has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled; then it breaks out four thickness ranges and identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. Through September 2019, of the total cold rolled sheet and […]
The Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users (CAMMU) and other trade associations are calling for sunset provisions to be included in any comprehensive Section 232 tariff reform legislation considered by Congress. A letter sent today to Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley and Ranking Member Ron Wyden emphasizes the damage Section 232 tariffs are […]
Today I was on a conference call with steel buyers associated with HARDI, the trade organization whose members sell galvanized steel and other products to mechanical contractors. We have an article about the call in this evening’s issue, but there was one fact that was brought up by multiple executives: the price increases “have not […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of October: Flat Rolled = 53 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 57 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Sheet steel prices declined rapidly throughout October, and the SMU Service Center Inventories Report shows that service centers pared down inventories […]
Do you think the country is going to be a little distracted this week with all the witnesses in President Trump’s impeachment hearings? A reminder of the results of one of our real-time polls where 53 percent of the 493 individuals responding to a question about who they were going to vote for in the […]
Earlier this week Steel Market Update went out to a group of steel buyers to gather pricing information and market intelligence regarding how they were reacting to the recent price announcements, and if they thought this round of increases would result in yet another dead cat bounce. (A dead cat bounce is one where prices […]
Flat rolled steel prices are on the way up following two recent rounds of price increases. Steel Market Update has been anticipating the turnaround in prices as the market has been near the point of “capitulation” for several weeks. Capitulation is the point when 75 percent or more of our service center survey respondents are […]
As flat rolled steel prices move higher, we need to remember that prior to the price increases there was an abnormally large spread between hot rolled based prices and those of cold rolled and coated. Instead of being $100-$140 per ton, they had been running as high as $180-$200 per ton. The spread was created […]
Although too early to be called a trend, the latest readings in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyer’s Sentiment Index show a slight uptick in optimism following recent price increase announcements by the mills. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful […]
Not surprisingly following the mills’ $40 price increase announcements Oct. 24-25, negotiations between steelmakers and steel buyers have tightened somewhat. What is surprising is that roughly two out of three buyers still report mills actively negotiating spot prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized, as well as plate. In the hot rolled segment, 62 […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled showed early signs of lengthening in the first week of November following the $40 per ton price increase announcements Oct. 24-25. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. Thus, this data suggests the mills are getting busier as buyers […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The world has grown accustomed to the World Trade Organization. A world without a means to settle disputes through negotiations or, if agreement is impossible, binding dispute resolution, is a hallmark of the WTO system. From 1948 to […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Happy Thanksgiving! That most American of holidays gives us a chance to appreciate the blessings we have as Americans. Our tradition almost forces us to eat turkey as part of that ritual—along with a lot of other neat […]
The domestic steel mills announced new $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) price increases on flat rolled this past week. This is the second price increase on flat rolled over the past two months. The domestic mills, led by ArcelorMittal USA, announced $40 per ton spot base price increases on Oct. 24-25 and were able to collect […]
The day was bubbling with rumors as I was actively speaking with both plate and flat rolled steel buyers. They were telling me to expect a price increase announcement on both products. The plate guys were much less confident that any increase would “stick,” but it is worth trying. On the flat rolled side, mill […]
I have noticed many articles in the mainline press over the past few days slamming the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs as not helping the steel industry. Most of the articles point to the recent loss announced by U.S. Steel as proof, along with minimal to no job gains in the industry. I don’t think […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The China tariffs, the steel and aluminum tariffs, the safeguard tariffs on solar panels and washing machines all have a feature in common: some form of product exclusion. This means that imported products covered by these measures may be […]
John Packard is traveling… Eddie Lehner, Ryerson president and CEO, is optimistic that carbon steel prices will bottom in the fourth quarter. “Given where prices are now, the recent price increases have a better chance of sticking than the ones that were announced in Q2 and Q3,” he commented during the company’s third-quarter conference call […]
This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
A memo from the Commerce Department Office of the Inspector General suggests that the Section 232 exclusion process may be favoring the companies that file objections to exclusion requests. The watchdog agency found evidence of unofficial communications that may be giving objectors undue influence in tariff decisions. The Bureau of Industry and Security is charged […]
London, Brexit, new election, split country. As I was standing in line to enter the House of Lords, the gentleman to my left began discussing how Brexit has severed parties and even families. No longer can British families talk about their government openly. I heard the theme on many occasions as I traveled about London […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The presidential campaign heats up. The impeachment investigations continue. Polarization is in the air. Today, I note a trend that’s pertinent to all this—increasingly, pundits and commentators are discussing the futility of our current polarization. I recommend a […]
John Packard is traveling… While it’s too early to tell how the market will fully react to last week’s price increase announcements by the flat rolled mills, change is clearly afoot, based on the findings from SMU’s canvass of the market over the past two days. How high will prices go, and for how long? […]
Steel Market Update’s Current and Future Buyers Sentiment Indexes inched up a few points this week, but remain near their lowest levels in six years. The goal of SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Sentiment Index), as well […]
Steel Market Update’s negotiations data showed just a hint of tightening in price talks between the mills and their customers this past week, perhaps in anticipation of the $40 price increase on flat rolled steel announced by the mills on Thursday and Friday. The data, gathered by SMU prior to the price increase announcements, shows […]
Mill lead times for flat rolled products continued to shorten slightly over the past few weeks. The average lead time for hot rolled is now down to three and a half weeks, cold rolled is less than five and a half weeks and coated steels are just six weeks. Plate lead times remain around four […]