Who is more aware of the sorry state of America’s roads and bridges than the truckers who must navigate the potholes every day? That’s why trucking industry trade groups are excited about the new funding in the infrastructure bill passed by the Senate last week. They also support language in the bill that would open […]
On Friday, Steel Market Update sent data providers the final analysis for July of service center inventories, shipments, steel on-order, and percentage of inventories tied up for contract sales. Premium members will receive the report on Monday. As expected, after reviewing our Flash Report which is provided to data providers five days into the new […]
Memorize these words, “carbon border adjustment tax,” as they are being mentioned in the Senate Budget Committee, which is working on the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package the Senate advanced on Wednesday. The idea proposed would “account for the cost incurred by U.S. businesses to comply with laws and regulations limiting greenhouse gas emissions,” based on […]
The U.S. Senate passed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The bill includes $550 billion in new spending. The bill calls for $110 billion for roads, bridges and major infrastructure projects. It also includes $40 billion for bridge repair and replacement, $39 billion to modernize public transit, $66 billion for passenger and freight rail, $65 billion to […]
We are seeing the early signs of a market where flat rolled steel prices are either peaking or about to top out. Last week, I spoke about service center spot prices into their end customers. I mentioned that both the manufacturing companies, and the service centers themselves, were beginning to report spot prices as being […]
When we reported steel prices on Tuesday, we noted that for the first time in a year we saw mixed results with some prices rising, one remaining the same and one dropping. We did not change our Price Momentum Indicator. However, we noted that we were carefully watching the markets to see when we would […]
Looking for Signs One year ago, benchmark hot rolled prices bottomed at $440 per ton ($22.00/cwt). Since then, steel prices have been on a tear with spot hot rolled more than four times higher at nearly $1,900 per ton ($95.00/cwt). The net result from this 52-week march higher is the way steel buyers view the […]
We talk a lot about the price of steel going up. We don’t talk as much about spreads between hot-rolled coil and prime scrap – which are going up just as fast if not faster. And if you’ve listened to earnings calls over the last two weeks, you know that steel mills and industry analysts […]
Some experts believe short supplies and record-high steel prices are nearing a tipping point with new steelmaking capacity soon to come online and loads of imports on the water headed this way. But that’s not the prevailing sentiment among the service center and manufacturing executives who responded to SMU’s questionnaire this week. While it may […]
What’s this world coming to when an integrated steelmaker – a leader in an industry notorious for taking a huge toll on the environment – spends much of his earnings call talking about cutting carbon emissions? Said Lourenco Goncalves, Cleveland-Cliffs’ chief executive, last week: “Cliffs sees decarbonization as part of our license to continue to […]
Last week our average price on hot rolled coil (HRC) was $1,850 per ton ($92.50/cwt). We are not far away from $2,000 per ton ($100.00/cwt). The idea of HRC at $100.00/cwt is so far out of my historical perspective. I go back to the late 1970s when HRC sold under $10.00/cwt…. Jeez. I saw an […]
This evening we published our SMU Mill Lead Times by Product analysis. I recently received a few questions on the subject: How do we gather our lead time data? Do we take into consideration the lead times being published by the individual domestic steel mills? How do we feel the information we report is indicative […]
Mark Millett, CEO of Steel Dynamics, had some interesting comments in this morning’s earnings conference call with analysts. Based on his comments, the domestic steel industry is capable of producing 90-95 million tons of steel annually. The demand for steel is closer to 120 million tons; in extremely strong markets in the past it has […]
One of the products developed by Steel Market Update over the past four years is our flat rolled and plate steel service center inventories and shipment analysis. I discussed it briefly in Thursday’s newsletter, but I want to go into more detail as I believe it is a report that many of you will want […]
Steel Market Update reported our service center inventories and shipment data to our data providers today. Our Premium level members will get the report at 1 p.m. ET tomorrow. I can whet your appetite by telling you that flat rolled inventories on a days of supply basis rose slightly, but are not yet at what […]
So much for the summer doldrums. After a brief pause following Independence Day (and Canada Day), sheet prices have resumed their sharp upward trajectory. Hot-rolled coil prices are now over $1,800 per ton ($90 per cwt) while cold-rolled and galvanized base prices are above $2,000 per ton ($100 per cwt). If this pace of gains […]
I’ve heard more than a few times now that we should keep a close eye out for falling steel prices because, “Look what happened in lumber.” In case you’ve been under a rock (or tree), lumber prices fell more than 40% in June, their biggest monthly drop on record, according to CNBC and others. What […]
You may be tired of reading about it, but there is no ignoring the question: When will hot rolled coil prices finally peak? So many livelihoods depend on the answer. Unfortunately, Steel Market Update survey data clearly shows that no one knows. Roughly one-third of those polled this week believe steel prices will have peaked […]
To those of you in the United States, welcome back from the Fourth of July Holiday. For those of you in Canada, Mexico and elsewhere, thank you for bearing with us as we took our last holiday prior to our conference at the end of August (23-25). Square Peg in a Round Hole? As we move […]
There will be no Steel Market Update published on Sunday, July 4th, due to the national holiday (USA). We will resume coverage on Tuesday, July 6th. We wish everyone a safe holiday filled with family and friends (at least for those who have been vaccinated). Interesting comments received earlier this week from a steel executive whom I […]
Once Produced…Can We Even Get It Shipped? Transportation issues continue to plague the flat-rolled and plate steel markets. It’s bad enough that many steel mills are running one to four weeks late against their original promise date. We are hearing once the steel is produced it can take days to weeks of waiting for a […]
Change in the air…? We are beginning to hear of more hot rolled being available in the spot market. We are not (yet) hearing of mills taking prices below $1,680 per ton (which was the bottom of our range last week). During last week’s SMU Flat Rolled and Plate Steel Market Trends Survey, we noted […]
Let’s talk about lead times. Because the results from our latest survey caught my attention. This is the first time in since January-February that you can maybe discern a potential peak in pricing – at least judging by that metric. Lead Times: Trend or Head Fake I’m going to display our lead latest lead time […]
A Whimper or a Bang…? An interesting comment was made by one of the wholesalers on this morning’s HARDI galvanized steel conference call. I am paraphrasing here, but essentially the wholesaler was making the point that even when the mills catch up, the underlying demand is still there. From this executive’s perspective, as long as […]
First, Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers out there. Peek-a-Boo… A one-hundred-ton order of hot rolled at $1,680 does not mean the sky is falling. One of our competitors is writing that prices are starting to decline. We conducted channel checks on Friday, and we did not find any evidence of […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been rising consistently for 45 straight weeks (since the week of Aug. 10, 2020). There is a chance (no guarantees) that we could see the cycle continue for a full 52+ weeks as the steel mills continue to have supply issues and demand remains quite strong in just about every […]
The Art of Forecasting… This week I saw another milestone drop that I never thought I would live to see. Galvanized base pricing out of a domestic mill at $100.00/cwt (seems like there is an extra digit there for some reason). I go back far enough to remember galvanized steel prices around $10.00/cwt…. For the […]
I thought it would be an interesting exercise to take a look at benchmark hot rolled pricing over the past 12 months. I thought I would compare the numbers on a month-over-month basis to give everyone an idea of how steep the price increases have been. At the same time, we can think about the […]
Infrastructure, Energy, Wind Farms, Tanners, Summit Conference, Imports. If you are watching the news, you are aware of the Biden administration’s push for a large (at least $1 trillion) infrastructure bill. There is a lot of discussion about what infrastructure entails in light of the current economy. It’s not your father’s economy. There is need […]
I want to thank the National Association of Steel Pipe Distributors for giving me a chance to open their summer conference in Denver last week. I spoke about – what else, these days – steel prices. During the Q&A afterward and on the sidelines of the event, it was clear people were worried about (a) […]