Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict a recession any time soon, but the yield curve should be on your radar screen. Once every three months, the Steel Market Update staff tries to gain insight into the timing of the next recession. Economists consider recessions to be a necessary evil to clear […]
The attitudes of steel buyers and sellers, as measured by this week’s SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index questionnaire, are slightly more optimistic than they were last month. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), as well as […]
Lead times for most flat rolled steel products continue to shrink, according to returns from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill, and theoretically the more flexible the price. Lead times for […]
When it comes to haggling over steel prices with the mills, buyers retain a strong bargaining position. Steel Market Update tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel represent the mill negotiation position. More than eight out of 10 buyers report that mills are willing to negotiate spot prices on new orders placed this […]
As of August, the U.S. economy had grown for 112 months in a row, the second longest growth streak in history. How much longer can that trend possibly continue? Is a recession inevitable? Not any time soon, predicts Lisa Morrison, Principal Economist for the CRU Group. Speaking at the CRU North American Steel Conference this […]
In the cyclic environment of the steel industry, the best time to sell your company is when you are at the top of your game, said Vincent Pappalardo and Justin Wolfort of advisory firm Brown, Gibbons Lang & Co. Addressing service center executives at the Association of Steel Distributors regional meeting last week in Cleveland, […]
Manufacturing expanded in September, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The headline PMI posted at 59.8 percent, well over the neutral point of 50.0, but fell 1.3 percent from August. “Export orders expanded, but four major industries are no longer contributing. Price pressure continues, but the index softened for the fourth straight […]
The slowdown for global manufacturing continued in September, according to the latest J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The headline PMI fell to a 22-month low at 52.2, down from 52.6 in August. The PMI has been above the 50.0 neutral mark since March 2016, but has declined in each of the past five months. Output […]
The Association of Women in the Metal Industries (AWMI) will host its annual conference Nov. 7-9 at the Don Cesar in St. Pete Beach, Fla. This year’s schedule of events includes an educational tour of Chromalloy Castings on Wednesday, leadership trainings on Thursday and a dinner cruise on Friday evening. Mary Lindsey, Senior Vice President […]
Despite moderating prices, the outlook for the U.S. steel market is generally favorable for 2019, reported Josh Spoores, CRU Principal Analyst for North America, during a CRU Webinar on Friday. The Trump administration’s Section 232 steel tariff has limited competition from steel imports this year. Steel sheet arrivals into the U.S. are down 12 percent […]
The month of September saw steel prices continue a steady decline that began in August. Steel Market Update data in the table below shows the benchmark hot rolled price slid from more than $900 per ton in the summer to the current price around $854. The same for cold rolled, which went from $1,000 a […]
The U.S. active rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, increased this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs rose by 1 to 1,054, with oil rigs down 3 to 863 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 189 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs up 1 to […]
Members of the Precision Metalforming Association are expecting business conditions to remain steady for the rest of the year. A survey of 110 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada showed 28 percent of participants believe economic activity will improve, 62 percent expect no change (same as last month) and 10 percent expect a decline […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped to a five-month low in September, sliding down 3.2 points to 60.4. Production and new orders continued solid growth in September, but softened to a six-month low for production and a five-month low for orders. Output and weaker demand was noted by some firms, although many continue to outperform their […]
U.S. Steel is not opening eight new steel plants. No matter how many times President Trump claims that they are. In a wide-ranging press conference this week in advance of the hearing of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump commented on a number of issues including the economy and his steel tariffs. Once again, […]
Aircraft and defense drove a 4.5 percent increase in new orders for durable goods in August, exceeding economists’ expectations. Aircraft orders jumped 69.1 percent and defense orders surged 44.4 percent last month. Orders for autos and parts, however, fell 1.0 percent. When removing transportation from the mix, orders rose a much softer 0.1 percent. Core […]
PTC Alliance has reached a new four-year labor agreement with union workers at its Alliance, Ohio, plant. PTC Alliance manufactures welded and cold drawn mechanical steel tubing. The company employs about 220 workers covered by the Steelworkers contract, signed Sept. 23. Terms of the pact were not disclosed. The company’s relations with the union have […]
I am a new subscriber to your newsletter, but I’m not new to manufacturing. Most of my career was spent working at a medium-sized machining company located in the Southeast, which specialized in production machining mainly to support automotive companies and other assembly plants in the United States. Over the past three decades, I have […]
Support for the Trump administration tariffs on Chinese imports extends across party lines to a majority of voters, according to a recent survey sponsored by the Alliance for American Manufacturing, a non-partisan partnership between American manufacturers and the United Steelworkers. The poll of 1,200 likely voters in the November election showed that 63 percent support […]
The following Trade Policy & Economic Briefing was authored by CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Since March 2018, there has been a broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This has developed because of rising U.S. interest rates and strong U.S. economic growth, which is in relative contrast to continued, historically low Eurozone interest rates […]
In the last month, eight of the 16 currencies that Steel Market Update tracks were down against the dollar and eight were up. This was a dramatic change from the May-August period when few of the 16 appreciated against the dollar (just one in May, two in June, three in July and two in August). […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has been treading water, albeit at optimistic levels, for the past six months. However, the attitudes of buyers and sellers about conditions in the steel market might be described as anywhere from cautious to tepid, judging by the comments provided in Steel Market Update’s latest Steel Buyers Sentiment Index […]
The following article is regularly published for our Premium users, but we decided to share it with our entire readership this month. If you are interested in upgrading to a Premium subscription, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475. Oil and gas prices have stabilized, oil inventories are declining and the number of operating rigs exploring […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium-level content with all readers this month. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Oil production in the U.S. hit another all-time high in July, but the number of operating rigs exploring for oil and gas has not changed much in 3½ months. […]
Oil production in the U.S. set another all-time record in August and stocks are increasing. In the last month, the price of oil has dropped by $16/barrel. Wall Street Breakfast had this to say on Nov. 9: “Oil fell below the $60 level overnight, a day after slipping into a bear market. That means U.S. […]
Lead times for most flat rolled steel products are about a week shorter than they were two months ago. Shorter lead times suggest that steel demand is easing. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill. Lead times for hot […]
The pendulum has definitely swung back in buyers’ favor when it comes to negotiating steel prices with the mills. Steel Market Update tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel represent the mill negotiation position. More than nine out of 10 buyers report that mills are willing to negotiate spot prices on hot rolled […]
Global economic expansion may have reached its peak as trade tensions pressure markets, says a new report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. OECD is projecting global GDP growth will settle at 3.7 percent in 2018 in its Interim Economic Outlook. “Amidst rising trade tensions and heightened trade policy uncertainty, global trade growth […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index slid seven points in September from its 10-month high in August. The general business conditions index showed a slower pace of growth with a reading of 19.0 for the month, below economists’ expectations of 23. New orders and shipments continued to expand but at a softer rate, falling 0.6 points […]
The following analysis is from the SMU Service Center Inventories Index. This index is a proprietary product produced through data collection and interaction with a large number of flat rolled and plate service centers across the United States. This index is normally shared only with data providers and our Premium level members. If you would […]