The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) released the following statement urging the U.S. government not to support market economy status for China. Falls Church, VA. April 12, 2016. The recent steel production cutbacks in China are positive but not sufficient steps in the right direction because they leave in place the state-owned enterprises [SOEs] […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through February 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and […]
The American Institute for International Steel submitted comments and will provide testimony on overcapacity in the global steel industry at a hearing convened by the U.S. Trade Representative on April 12, 2016. AIIS recognizes the damage caused to the U.S. steel industry from sustained excess steel capacity and urges the United States and the Organization […]
Based on our analysis of the most recent flat rolled steel market trends survey conducted by Steel Market Update this week, we continue to find buyers and sellers of steel being very optimistic. The current market index improved to +70 which is the highest (most optimistic) number ever recorded by our Sentiment Index going back […]
Steel buyers were pulling out their hair earlier today due to the number of mills holding tons off the market as they try to determine what the new pricing should be on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume products. As of early this afternoon (Thursday) steel buyers were informing Steel Market Update of a […]
Steel mill lead times on all four flat rolled products have become more extended, according to those who responded to our most recent flat rolled steel market analysis. As lead times extend, steel buyers have to place more orders in order to protect their inventories. The more orders placed, the better chance for the domestic […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel reported to Steel Market Update this past week that the domestic steel mills are less willing to negotiate steel prices. We believe this is due to strengthening order books, extending lead times, positive Sentiment and improving demand. In fact, we were learning throughout the day today that many […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 14th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
On Friday and Saturday of this past week, Steel Market Update attended the Association of Steel Distributors spring meeting. The following are some of the notes made during the presentations and during discussions with ASD members. Dr. Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence reported that he is “a little optimistic” when it comes to the […]
In what is hoped to be good news for the steel industry, manufacturing as measured by the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business expanded for the first time in six months. The PMI, or Purchasing Managers Index, increased 2.3 percentage points to register 51.8 from a reading of 49.5, indicating expansion in manufacturing and the […]
According to Baker Hughes data from April 11, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 450 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 14 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 10 to 362 rigs, gas rigs down 4 to 88 rigs, and […]
According to Baker Hughes data from April 8, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 443 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 7 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 8 to 354 rigs, gas rigs up 1 to 89 rigs, and […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 34. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q4 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate of the fourth quarter was 1.38 percent, down from 1.97 percent, in the third quarter and down from 3.86 percent in Q2. Normally […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 215,000 jobs were added in March, down from 245,000 in February but up from 168,000 in January. January and February were revised down by a total of 1,000. An explanation of the BLS report is included at the end […]
Consumer Confidence rose from an upwardly revised 94.0 in February to 96.2 in March. Included below is the official news release from the Conference Board. Our SMU analysis is exactly the opposite from the official version. This is not to say who is right and who is not but to point out to our members […]
March saw flat rolled steel prices rising throughout the month. SMU benchmark hot rolled average for the month was $427 per ton. This was slightly lower than Platts which revised their HRC number on the 30th which took their average up to $432 per ton. Both Platts and SMU monthly averages were higher than the […]
The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI as it is commonly called, surged six points in March to 53.6. The bounce back from February’s 8 point contraction was due to strong gains in production, new orders and order backlogs. The employment index rose above 50 in March to its highest level since April 2015. Inventories […]
Members of the Precision Metalforming Association are expecting business conditions to falter a bit during the next three months. The March PMA Business Conditions Report indicated a minor downward trend with 25 percent of participants predicting that economic activity will improve in the next three months (down from 30 percent in February), 59 percent expecting […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 13th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 24, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 464 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 12 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 15 to 372 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 92 rigs, and […]
Flat rolled steel pricing momentum is clearly on the side of the domestic steel mills. You have a number of the integrated mills essentially out of the spot markets and lead times are extended. Even hot rolled lead times are moving out despite weakness in the energy markets. SMU Price Momentum Indicator continues to point […]
Orders for durable goods fell 2.8 percent in February for the third decline in four months. The latest report from the Commerce Department shows transportation equipment leading the decrease, down 1.2 percent last month. Civilian aircraft orders plunged 27.1 percent leading the transportation equipment descent. Inventories continued to decrease as manufacturers struggle to bring inventories […]
The Architecture Billings Index made a slight gain in February, posting a score of 50.3 after falling to 49.6 in January. The score above 50 indicates a minor increase in design services for the month. The new projects inquiry index was 59.4, up from 59.3 the previous month. The design contract index was 51.7. “March […]
Orders for durable goods fell 2.8 percent in February for the third decline in four months. The latest report from the Commerce Department shows transportation equipment leading the decrease, down 1.2 percent last month. Civilian aircraft orders plunged 27.1 percent leading the transportation equipment descent. Inventories continued to decrease as manufacturers struggle to bring inventories […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 12th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
Manufacturing activity expanded in the Fifth District in March, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index registered 22, surging from -4 to its highest level since April 2010. Shipments and new orders both jumped this month. The shipments index gained 38 points climbing to a reading […]
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped lower than expected in February for reading of -0.29 percent from +0.41 percent in January. The reading of -0.29 indicates below average growth for the national economy. The four main components of the headline index, production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our second flat rolled steel market trends analysis for the month of March. We commit four days to canvass buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel. Then we put the vast majority (but not all) of the results into a Power Point presentation which we share with our Premium […]
Steel Mill lead times are important keys to watch. As lead times extend buyers have to place more orders and spend more time balancing their inventories in order to satisfy their customers. Longer lead times also support domestic steel mill pricing and create opportunities for steel mills to raise steel prices (which is exactly what […]