Based on the most recent MSCI flat rolled steel data Steel Market Update has calculated that U.S. service centers grew their “Excess” inventories from +2,000 tons at the end of December to +150,000 ton at the end of January. The “Apparent Excess” is based on a proprietary model which projects future shipments and inventory levels […]
The Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future construction activity, rose in January after contracting in previous consecutive months. The ABI reflects a nine to twelve month lead time between architectural billings and construction spending. The ABI press release from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) is reprinted in entirety below. For more information on […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S remained negative this week for the 4th consecutive week after being in positive territory for the prior 15 weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements […]
General business conditions fell 8 points in the February 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey after rising 10 points in January, but remained positive at 4.5. New orders were flat for the month, declining 11 points to -0.2. The shipment index dropped 13 points to 2.1. The inventory index fell to -5.0 indicating a slight drop […]
The Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) reported metalforming companies surveyed in the February 2014 Business Conditions Report are expecting weaker business conditions during the next three months. Those who expect economic activity to improve during the period slipped from 46 percent in January to 32 percent in February. PMA members anticipate a modest decline in incoming orders […]
Winter weather has taken its toll on builder confidence in the single-family home market says the National Association of Homebuilders. Builders also expressed concern about labor shortage and scarcity of available lots. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 10 points to 46, with all three of the major components of the index falling in […]
The move by the domestic mills to reach $700+ per ton hot rolled is nothing but a blur in the rear view mirror according to the various steel indexes followed by Steel Market Update. Flat rolled steel prices fell across the board on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels this past week. The […]
For the last couple of weeks we have been discussing various kinds of ethical issues that come up in the steel business. This week we will deal with the issue of when flat rolled steel is rejectable. Buyers and sellers often find that they disagree about the quality of the steel. Generally this problem is […]
In the month since this analysis was last published, the US dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 nations that we consider to be major players in either the iron ore market or in steel product trade or both. Most notably, the Russian Rouble and the South African Rand have declined by 4.7 percent […]
The European Union was formed in 1992 with the signing of the Maastricht Treaty on European Union (TEU). In an effort to instill fiscal discipline and encourage trade and free flow of labor and capital without giving up sovereignty, member countries would participate in a monetary union while remaining fiscally independent. The caveat was countries […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S remained negative this week for the 3rd consecutive week after being in positive territory for the prior 15 weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements […]
On Monday, Steel Market Update revised our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower. The adjustment means we anticipate flat rolled steel prices will move lower over the next 30 to 60 days. At the time of the change, SMU benchmark hot rolled coil was published at $660 per ton. The last adjustment to […]
A recovery in non-residential construction is happening said research analyst Timna Tanners, in a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but the upturn for the non-residential cycle has taken longer than expected and is “less pronounced” than usual. The last strong cycle for non-residential construction was in 2005-2007, supporting a booming housing market. The […]
Based strictly on our most recent flat rolled steel survey results, Steel Market Update is seeing modest improvements being reported in demand. As a group, our survey respondents have been becoming more optimistic as those reporting demand as in decline has shrunk from 17 percent in early December to 7 percent this past week. At […]
Steel analyst Charles Bradford of Bradford Research spoke at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference this past week. He presented a relatively upbeat analysis of the domestic steel industry. He began by referring to a recent McKinsey and Company report which basically said, “The steel industry has had it, it’s over. The industry doesn’t make […]
Friday’s report has been well publicized as disappointing at 113,000 jobs created especially following the December result at 76,000. Less well appreciated is that the January report made revisions to data on payrolls, the workweek and earnings going back to 2009. Revisions to this data, which is drawn from a survey of employers, showed 369,000 […]
Steel Market Update conducted our early February flat rolled steel market survey this week. We are pleased to provide our Premium Level members a Power Point presentation on the results which can be access on our website (when logged in) under the Analysis Tab (SMU Survey Results sub-menu). If you are already logged in you […]
Last week we started a discussion on the kinds of ethical issues that buyers and salespeople are exposed to in their everyday activities. The most difficult ethical issues arise because Buyers and Sellers have a fundamental tension in their relationship; they are counterparties negotiating deals where each wants the most for themselves while giving up […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of domestic banks and U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The January survey preamble was as follows: “The January 2014 Senior […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) began collecting responses earlier this week from the just shy 600 companies invited to participate in our twice monthly flat rolled steel market analysis. The individuals responding to our questions this week – particularly those related to our SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index – were being influenced by weather related issues […]
Based on the results of our steel market survey which we just completed this afternoon, lead times out of the domestic mills remained relatively constant compared to what we reported during the middle of January. Hot rolled lead times slipped to 3.89 weeks (average) down from 4.09 weeks. Cold rolled remained over 6 weeks at […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S remained negative this week for the 2nd consecutive week after being in positive territory for the prior 15 weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements […]
Residential building permit authorizations in Canada for December declined for the second month, falling 14.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 186,780 units from 216,608 units in November. According to data released by Statistics Canada, multi-family dwelling authorizations led the decline, dropping 21.3 percent while single family dwellings inched down 0.1 percent. Value […]
Steel buyers in the ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting an increase in new orders in the next three months. Of those surveyed, 46.7 percent are expecting business to improve in the early months of 2014, up from only 18.2 percent in December. Backlogs in the next three months are expected to increase said 33.3 […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 10 points to 12.5, indicating acceleration in business activity and reaching its highest level since May 2012. Prices paid and prices received rose in double digits in January with prices paid soaring 21 points to 36.6 indicating higher input costs. The six month outlook is optimistic with orders up […]
On January 14, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. This means we see steel market pricing at this moment as either in transition or moving sideways over the next 30 days. With ferrous scrap prices now weakening, lead times shortening and all of the available capacity back in […]
Essentially all of the domestic steel mills have finished maintenance on their blast furnaces. U.S. Steel is bringing back online their Fairfield furnace, Berkeley has completed the expansion of its hot strip mill and other domestic steel mill maintenance projects from 4th Quarter 2013 have been completed. Supply is available and now it is time […]
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI) registered 51.3 percent in January. Although the index slid 5.2 percentage points from December, it is still an indicator of growth in the manufacturing sector. Most of the indices that make up the PMI fell in January. The new orders index took a significant dive of […]
US automotive sales were mixed in January with automakers blaming winter weather on slipping sales. January is typically a soft month for the industry and will likely not affect forecasts for 16-16.5 million light vehicle sales for 2014. Ford Motor Co. reported sales fell 7.1 percent year-over-year to 155,644 vehicles. General Motors sales plunge 12 […]
When Steel Market Update decided to do an article on steel business ethics we knew the subject would elicit an immediate response from a number of our readers – and it has. What is making this process of writing a new series of articles on the subject of ethics interesting, is having another set of […]