The following articles are for our Premium level customers. Thank you again for your business. We also want you to know that the latest imports by product, port and country are in the website (must be logged in as Premium customer in order to access the data) as is our latest Survey data which was […]
Steel Market Update nailed (in our opinion) last month’s forecast for August. We projected that the -193,000 tons deficit from the end of July (based on our proprietary formula for what a balanced flat rolled inventory level should be for the U.S. service centers) would be eliminated and move into a very small excess situation. […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are becoming more optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful based on current market conditions according to Steel Market Update and their Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index rose to +64 or +11 points higher than where it was measured during the beginning of […]
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey registered a drop of 5.5 points to 22.5 in September after recording its highest reading since March 2011 at 28.0 in August. Orders and shipments increased by 1 and 5 points, respectively, while indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times were positive for the month. Input prices were […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. remained negative this week for the fourth week in a row after being in positive territory for the previous four weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) […]
Spot prices remained stable this week as steel buyers wait to see how the absorption of Severstal by AK Steel and Steel Dynamics will affect the marketplace. It is anticipated that it could take 3-4 weeks before we get a clear indication as to how the commercial departments for each mill will integrate the former […]
Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization for August 2014: Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 104.12 for August, a decline of 0.1 percent from July. This is another example where the individual month’s result can be misleading. The three month […]
Manufacturing activity in New York in September was at its highest level since late 2009. The general business conditions index rose 13 points to 27.5 according to the survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The new orders index rose three points to 16.9 while the shipments index advanced two points to 27.1—both […]
At least once per month, Steel Market Update produces an update on the various currencies associated with steel trading nations. The following information is as of late last week and was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright. Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 82,520,000 metric tons, an increase of 10.7 percent from the previous month and an increase of 12.8 percent […]
Steel Market Update featured Timna Tanners, Metals & Mining Analyst, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, and John Anton, Director of Steel Services, IHS Global, at a luncheon presentation at the recent Steel Summit. The topic was commodity and steel forecasts and consolidation of the industry. As usual the two disagreed on some topics and sparked some […]
After setting a record optimistic high of +68 at the beginning of August 2014, SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has now declined for the second time and stands at +53. The most recent measurement is still well within the optimistic parameters for our index. Even so, we are concerned with the 15 point dip that […]
Flat rolled steel mill Lead times remained relatively stable compared to those reported during the middle of August. However, when compared to the lead times reported in early September 2013 we are finding the latest lead times to be slightly extended. Hot rolled lead times are averaging 4.37 weeks based on the responses received in […]
Steel Market Update conducted one of our flat rolled steel market surveys this past week. One of the key questions asked during the survey process is regarding the willingness of the domestic flat rolled steel mills to negotiate spot pricing. In last week’s survey our respondents reported a jump in the percentage reporting the steel […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
The August ISM Purchasing Manufacturing Index increased 1.9 points to a reading of 59.0, its highest reading since March 2011. Survey respondents report business is strong but expressed concern over geopolitical issues. New orders and production each increased 3.3 percent to 66.7 and 64.5, respectively. The new orders index was the highest seen since April […]
The following is a recap of the data compiled during the month of August 2014. For the second month in a row our SMU Price Momentum Indicator remained at Neutral as steel prices have been relatively stable with the $673 average up $6 from the July average. However, by the end of the month our […]
Global manufacturing conditions were relatively unchanged in August, increasing to 52.6 on the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI from 52.4 in July. The US continued to show strong domestic and foreign demand. The Eurozone and the UK weakened in August with the Eurozone registering its lowest PMI since July 2013. Japan rebounded while manufacturing conditions […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rebounded in August to 64.3, gaining 11.7 points and making up the decline in July’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). The August jump confirmed that July’s weakness was only temporary, according to Philip Uglow, Chief Economist at MNI Indicators. Production rose by 20 points to its greatest monthly increase in ten years. […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board increased by 2.1 in August to 92.4. The view of the Present Situation rose by 6.7 to 94.6 as Expectations declined by 1.0 to 90. These two components have now crossed, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, and the view of […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. turned negative this week after being in positive territory for the previous four weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in the Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the […]
Last Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis published data for the GDP of each state for the first time ever. Data now exists from Q2 2005 to Q4 2013 by state and region. Table 1 shows the regional value of GDP in chained 2009 dollars for 2013 as a whole, the annual growth as a […]
Last Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis published data for the GDP of each state for the first time ever. Data now exists from Q2 2005 to Q4 2013 by state and region. Steel Market Update will start doing a regular analysis of this data for our Premium level users but wanted to share our […]
Manufacturing activity continued to improve in the Fifth District in August, according to the survey of manufacturing activity conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose to 12 for its highest reading since March 2011. Shipments gained 7 points advancing to 10 while new orders gained 8 points registering 13. Employment […]
Durable goods orders increased 22.6 percent in July, or $55.3 billion to $300.2 billion, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The increase was the highest level seen since the series was first published in 1992. Excluding defense, new orders increased 24.9 percent. Transportation equipment drove the increase with a gain of 74.2 […]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that Texas manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in August. The production index in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey registered at 6.8 in August, falling from 19.1 in July. The new orders index fell 11 points to 2.2. The shipment index registered a 16.4 point drop to 6.4, […]
When I think about selling steel what I am actually doing is thinking about the sales process. The process is the various steps needed to identify, qualify, quantify, engage and close business with any prospective account. Successful salespeople, no matter what the industry or product, understand the various steps that they follow as they pursue […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment, which measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment, continues at very optimistic levels. However, our Index has seen some erosion of enthusiasm as our Index has dropped 9 points since we recorded our record high of […]
Both manufacturing companies and service centers reported similar results regarding the status of spot pricing out of the distributors into their end user customers. Manufacturers reported distributors spot pricing as being either stable (no change) which gathered 73 percent of the responses or rising which attracted 23 percent of those manufacturing companies who responded to […]