Companies have a tendency to want to put their heads in the sand and not take any risks during uncertain times. At the moment, based on data we are compiling on our own as well as economic data produced by others, well let’s just suffice it to say there is no clear picture as to […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of September 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in September were 86,120,000 metric tons, an increase of 16.2 percent from the previous month and an increase of 1.7 percent from […]
The September Architecture Billings Index rebounded from August’s dip into negative territory. September’s ABI score was 53.7 up from 49.1 the previous month, continuing the see-saw pattern the index has shown throughout 2015. “Aside from uneven demand for design services in the Northeast, all regions are project sectors are in good shape,” said AIA Chief […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q3 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.9 percent in the third Q, beating forecasts for 6.8 percent growth, but decelerating to its slowest pace […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the eleventh consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in November last year but on a month over month basis has declined for eight of the first nine months of 2015. On a year over year basis using a three month moving average […]
SMU was disappointed in two key data sets which were released this past week. The first was the MSCI service center shipment and inventories which indicated a weakening economy and a continuation of the high inventory levels at the U.S. distributors. The second was the import license data through the first 15 days of October […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) released September shipments and inventories for U.S. distributors. We reported in Thursday evening’s issue that flat rolled steel shipments were weaker than expected while receipts were higher than expected. The combination of the two has driven our Apparent Excess to over 1 million net tons. The SMU Flat Rolled […]
We have two data sources for this report: the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily Broad Index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of October 15th the […]
According to Baker Hughes data from October 16, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 787 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 8 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 10 to 595 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 192 rigs, and […]
A settlement in the RG Steel Chapter 11 bankruptcy case will give the USW a 70 percent share of the $17.4 million that will be distributed to creditors. The union will receive $12 million, including $6.3 million in vacation and severance pay owed workers. The USW has been working to recover funds for workers and […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the tenth consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
Two of the nation’s most watched manufacturing indicators showed weakening business conditions in October. Surveys of manufacturing firms conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and New York also indicated muted optimism for business conditions during the next six months. Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing activity declined for the third consecutive month in New […]
There are two groups of people who get access to a good portion of our flat rolled steel market analysis which is conducted by Steel Market Update twice per month. The two groups are: the people who participate in our research and our Premium level members. We believe our analysis is superior to others which […]
Global steel demand will decrease by -1.7 percent to 1,513 million tonnes in 2015, according to the World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook for 2015 and 2016. The 2015 decrease follows a gain of 0.7 percent in 2014, the same amount of growth that WSA expects to see again in 2016 as steel demand reaches […]
We include here an abridged statement from the IMF that was released last week and in which the commodity situation looms large. Followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference Good morning. I have […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
According to Baker Hughes data from October 9, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 795 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 14 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 9 to 605 rigs, gas rigs down 6 to 189 rigs, and […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 142,000 jobs were added in September which was well below consensus expectations of about 200,000. In addition July was revised down from 245,000 to 223,000 and August was revised down from 173,000 to 136,000. An upward revision for August had been […]
Buyers and sellers of steel continued to be optimistic about business but less so than a few months ago. Since then Sentiment has been trending lower as the strain of ever lower steel prices, issues regarding demand, lower commodity prices and shrinking margins due to high inventory levels are affecting both buyers and sellers. Today […]
Flat rolled steel mill lead times remain historically short as the domestic mills struggle to keep their mills full. Based on the results from this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis (survey) we are seeing lead times at least one week shorter than this time last year on all products with the exception of Galvalume. […]
With the short lead times (referenced in another article in tonight’s issue) the mills have little choice but to negotiate pricing with their customers as every order counts. Each of the flat rolled products followed by Steel Market Update are being reported, almost unanimously, that the mills are working with their customers. The graphic below […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, which tracks the initial planning of nonresidential building projects, gained 5.8 percent in September to register 133.5. Planning for institutional building led the increase with a 12.0 percent jump from August. Dodge Data & Analytics reports institutional planning has been on an erratic upward trend as state and local budgets recover […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was negative (indicating lower prices) for the eighth consecutive week. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
I recently had dinner with the owner of a Midwest based flat rolled steel service center. During the course of the conversation the subject of steel sales and, specifically, the development of new sales leads came up. I am sure this is a topic that many service center managers reflect upon on an almost daily […]
Global manufacturing has been trending flat to downward for most of 2015. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI continued that trend in September with a posting of 50.6 from 50.7 in August. The PMI was the lowest it has been since July and has averaged 50.8 for third quarter. Any reading over 50.0 is considered […]
According to Baker Hughes data from October 2, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 809 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 29 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 26 to 614 rigs, gas rigs down 2 to 195 rigs, and […]
We ended the month of September recognizing that not only have steel prices been falling but the Momentum behind pricing turned negative during the month. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator is now pointing toward Lower prices to be seen in the coming month or longer. Sentiment, another Key Market Indicator, has been dropping as you […]
The September Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI registered 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the 51.7 percent reading in August. The PMI is at its lowest point since May 2013 when it registered 50.1 percent. The three month moving average has been see-sawing since June when it gained points after seven […]
The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI as it is more commonly known, surprised economists by dropping 5.7 points to 48.7 in September The decline follows two months of expansion and the speed of descent is a cause for concern said MNI Indicators. The production index plummeted by double digits to its lowest level since […]