Builder confidence in the new built, single-family housing market rose in June. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) registered 49, just a point below the reading of 50 that indicates good building conditions. “After several months of little fluctuation, a four-point uptick in builder sentiment is a welcome sign […]
A downturn in business conditions is coming, said participants in the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report for June. Fewer participants are expecting conditions to improve in the next three months (31 percent, down from 33 percent) and more are expecting that economic activity will decline (15 percent, up from 7 percent). PMA president […]
An increase in manufacturing activity in New York took analysts by surprise in June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general business index in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted a reading of 19.28, up from 19.01 in May. Economists were expecting the index to decline to 15.0 in June. The new […]
We have all been through them – the dreaded “Lobby Call” – that impersonal sales call in the office of a potential steel buyer in the hope of being able to spend a few moments of quality time and, instead, the interaction between salesman and buyer is relegated to the lobby of the company. The […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months, (Figure 1) which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. The currencies of the steel trading nations have been fairly stable over the last month. Table 1 shows the number of […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S was positive this week for the tenth week in a row after being in negative territory for the prior ten weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) […]
Funding for the FY 2015 appropriations bill that supports the US Army Corps of Engineers and projects in the WRRDA has been approved by the House Appropriations Committee. Funding for the Corps civil works projects is $5.493 billion. Below is a reprint of a press release by Waterways Council Inc. praising the Committee’s approval and […]
We are including this article because it puts the Fed’s post-recession activities into perspective. Our recollection is that the European central bankers scoffed at the Federal Reserve quantitative easing and TARP programs when they were initiated in 2008. The European Central bank, (ECB) has taken the single currency block into uncharted waters by sending the […]
A short note to let our Premium Level members know that our Steel Market Update survey results are online and can be accessed on the website. If you need assistance accessing any of the Premium products on our website please let me or Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com know and we will help you. We are also sharing this […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 217,000 jobs were added in May, April was revised down by 6,000 to 282,000 and March was unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose from 190,000 in March to 236,000 in April then declined by 2,000 in May, (Figure 1). All numbers […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator Adjusted to Lower from Neutral: Steel Market Update conducted our early June flat rolled steel market analysis this past week. The results of our survey, coupled with information being gathered independently of our survey have prompted SMU to revise our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral. We now believe […]
The Institute for Supply Management has a sub-group of steel buyers who survey their members once per month in order to track trends affecting the steel industry. In the most recent survey, the ISM Steel Buyers group reported foreign steel mills and their domestic representatives as much more aggressively seeking steel orders from U.S. steel […]
From time to time Steel Market Update writes an article that seems to touch the collective nerve of the steel community. A number of our articles which we have published under the “Steel Buyers Basics” title fit in that category. The article we have shared with both our Steel Market Update members as well as […]
The housing bubble in China has popped according to economists. The oversupply of housing and shortage of developer financing will slow China’s GDP growth to less than 6 percent in 2014 says a recent report by Japanese investment company Nomura. Nomura says a “hard landing” may be in China’s future due to a 33 percent […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is at +54 this week and continues to be well within the optimistic range for the index. Even though the index dropped 8 points from the all-time high recorded during the middle of May, the growing optimistic trend continues as our three month moving average improved to […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is at +54 this week and continues to be well within the optimistic range for the index. Even though the index dropped 8 points from the all-time high recorded during the middle of May, the growing optimistic trend continues as our three month moving average improved to […]
According to the results of our latest flat rolled steel market survey just completed earlier today, mill lead times are slowly beginning to move in (get shorter) on almost all products followed by Steel Market Update. Our respondents reported shorter lead times on hot rolled which were at 4.91 weeks on the 15th of May […]
As mentioned in the article on steel mill lead times included in this newsletter, we tend to see steel mills as more willing to negotiate steel prices as order books begin to get leaner and lead times begin to shrink. We are seeing some retrenchment of lead times and, at the same time, our recent […]
Truck capacity may get a boost from new orders to manufacturers. Orders for Class 8 trucks increased by 14.2 percent in May for a total of 26,900 units, according to ACT Research. The increase in truck capacity is good news for the industry that is at an all time high capacity. The bad news is […]
Steel inputs were steady to down during the month of May. Scrap prices declined $18 to $3 per ton while iron ore prices were down $20.60 to $13.60 per ton. Zinc and Aluminum prices showed a slight increased of $0.0105 to $0.0074 per pound.
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S was positive this week for the 9th week in a row after being in negative territory for the prior 10 weeks. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) […]
The auto sale roundup for May started out with gusto. Early reporter Chrysler posted US automotive sales at 194,421 units, a 17 percent increase year over year. Chrysler’s Jeep brand set a sales record in May with 64 percent jump in sales. On CNBC this morning, they were reporting Chrysler as saying their forecast was […]
Manufacturing expanded for the 12th consecutive month in May according to the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business released by the Institute of Supply Management. The PMI registered 55.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percent. The new orders index grew 1.8 points to 56.9. The production index gained 5.3 points to a reading of 61.0 percent. Employment continued […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
Steel Market Update has been following the Armada Corporate Intelligence economists since we first heard Dr. Chris Kuehl present at a conference we attended earlier this year. We were so impressed with both Dr. Kuehl’s (pronounced Keel) presentation skills and their newsletter that we invited Dr. Kuehl to be a keynote speaker at this year’s […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI made a modest uptick to 52.2 in May after dropping to a six month low of 51.9 in April. Faster expansion rates were seen in production, new orders and orders for new exports. Overall improvement, however, remains modest with the average rate of increase in business conditions lower than […]
With the exception of SteelBenchmarker which only supplies steel indices twice per month, all of the other indexes showed flat rolled steel averages as being either the same or down slightly compared to one week ago. Perhaps the most surprising has been Platts which by the end of this past week had taken its benchmark […]
As usual we will spend a few moments taking a look at the month of May in our rear view mirror to see what transpired. SMU Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted during the month from Higher to Neutral as we detected a change in the supply/demand dynamics with the return to full production at US […]
This article is part of a series of articles written by John Packard originally under the heading “Steel Buyers Basics.” Recent articles have focused on the steel sales process, but sales and purchasing are connected. The fact that my experience is associated with the flat rolled steel markets and products does not detract from the […]
Economic indicators were mostly positive in May. Housing starts and sales improved while the ABI dropped. Respondents to the various economic surveys were generally upbeat about future economic and business conditions. Steel buyers looked for more of the same activity for the next six months. The abbreviated breakdown follows. New home sales bounced back in […]