Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace from mid-May through early July, although manufacturing production was generally flat, reported the Federal Reserve in its July 17 Beige Book. The Fed’s periodic survey of the market found businesses have a generally positive outlook for the coming months, with expectations of continued modest growth despite […]
In Sunday’s issue of Steel Market Update, we adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled from Neutral to Higher. One of the justifications for that move was the Service Center Spot data we were collecting last week. In our analysis, we found a change in pricing mentality, not a 180 degree change, but a […]
Manufacturing conditions improved in New York State in July, says the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index rebounded from contraction to gain 13 points and register 4.3. Shipments increased during the month while new orders were essentially flat. Indices for unfilled orders and inventories moved lower […]
The United Steelworkers have a new leader as of today. Thomas M. Conway was installed as the eighth international president, replacing Leo Gerard, who has retired. “I’ve known Tom for 25 years. He’s earned my admiration, demonstrating a special toughness and a willingness to take on the most difficult jobs and negotiations,” Gerard said. “He […]
Steel Market Update has moved our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled products from Neutral to Higher. We continue to reference plate Price Momentum at Lower. This move is being made after the domestic steel mills, led by Nucor, announced two rounds of $40 per ton price increases over the past two weeks. SMU is […]
Industry optimism, as measured by Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, continues to waver in the face of uncertain demand in some sectors and steel prices that are at an important tipping point. The mills have announced price increases totaling $80 per ton in the past two weeks. If they succeed in reversing the […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, declined this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 5 to 958, with oil rigs down 4, gas rigs down 2, and miscellaneous rigs up 1. Compared to this time last year, […]
The rate of job creation in the U.S. in 2019 is slowing, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The recent employment reports provide mixed signals. Job openings are high, unemployment is low, but the rate of job creation is slowing. This is probably due to […]
In the last 12 months the rate of job creation in the primary metals industries has been slower than in manufacturing as a whole, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. In June, 191,000 jobs were created in the private sector and government gained 33,000 positions. Table 1 breaks […]
Demand for long products is very strong, driven by the construction industry. Demand for sheet products is declining. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and imports/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply […]
Commerce Department data confirms a slowdown in steel product shipments and new orders in 2019. Steel industry trade association data from the AISI and MSCI is most widely used to assess the state of the industry. In addition, the Census Bureau provides monthly data on manufacturing inventories, shipments and new orders for total U.S. manufacturing […]
Steel price negotiations have tightened considerably as the mills have begun to hold firm in support of two $40 per ton price increases announced in the past two weeks. Note that Steel Market Update began gathering the data below on Monday, just prior to the latest mill price increase announcements on Tuesday and Wednesday. In […]
Lead times for steel delivery have moved out a bit in the past two weeks, lending support to recent mill price increases. The average lead time for hot rolled has moved up to nearly four weeks, cold rolled to nearly six weeks, and coated steels to more than six weeks. Plate lead times are bucking […]
Manufacturing technology orders in May rose 7.3 percent from April to $378.4 million. The Association for Manufacturing Technology reported orders for metal cutting technologies increased 4.5 percent from the previous month while orders for forming and fabricating jumped 64.8 percent. Total orders fell almost 22 percent from May 2018. Orders for the first five months […]
It has been some time since we shared comments from one of our trading friends located in China. There have been significant changes in the Chinese steel industry, and the U.S. tariffs on China are having an impact, according to our source. Here is what he had to say: “The Chinese market has not flexed […]
Steel prices dominated the industry headlines in June, falling between $60 and $85 per ton depending on the product, or roughly 10 percent. Steel Market Update received reports of deals on hot rolled steel below $500 per ton. The mills also made headlines late in the month with their announcement of a $40 per ton […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 51.7 percent in June from 52.1 percent in May, its lowest reading since October 2016. The headline PMI has been softening since September 2018, noted Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Softening this month was primarily due to demand and inputs […]
Global manufacturing contracted in June with manufacturing indices falling as trade tensions and tariffs impacted business conditions. At 49.4, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI contracted to its lowest rate in six-and-a-half years. International trade continued to weaken with export orders falling for the tenth consecutive month. The majority of countries in the June survey […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, remained steady this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs remained the same at 967, with oil rigs up 4, gas rigs down 4, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged. Compared to this time last year, […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of the Key Market Indicators shows a slight improvement in both our view of the present situation and in the trend of the indicators in June. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. In it we […]
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board decline sharply in June following a downward revision of the May data. The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator; therefore, we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in June […]
Global steel production hit an all-time high in April and that record was smashed in May. Global steel production in April achieved a new high annual rate of 1.880 billion metric tons (Mt). Production surged in May to an annual rate of 1.953 billion Mt. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion Mt and capacity […]
The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q1 2019 was 3.1 percent, but the mix of components gives cause for concern. This SMU report is very similar to the one we published for the first estimate on April 27. The first estimate for Q2 2019 will be published on July 26. After the worst […]
The Precision Metalforming Association says metalforming companies continue to be concerned about future business conditions. The May report, sampling 100 metalforming companies, shows little change in their confidence that orders and general business activity will increase. “PMA’s monthly Business Conditions Report reveals that metalforming manufacturers continue to show concern about business activity,” said PMA President […]
Manufactured durable goods orders declined in May by 1.3 percent to $243.4 billion, reported the U.S. Census Bureau. Orders have fallen in three of the last four months and the decline was steeper than expected in May. Civilian aircraft orders were to blame for much of the decline, plummeting 28.2 percent on difficulties at Boeing […]
Industry optimism, as measured by Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, remains in tepid territory despite slight upticks in both the Current and Future Index readings this week. This is the first time since early April that the indexes have not shown another decline, perhaps signaling some sort of emotional bottom. But weak steel […]
One thing is certain in this crazy steel market, service centers are taking their spot prices lower and lower as each week passes. Manufacturing companies are almost unanimous in their view that flat rolled steel distributors are decreasing their spot offers. We saw 93 percent of the manufacturing companies responding to last week’s SMU flat […]
In this report, we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel trading and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S. dollar. In fact, at any given time, some are always moving in the opposite direction. The latest value […]
The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 13 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last month. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S, dollar. […]
The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., reached $66.24 per barrel on April 20 and had declined to $51.94 on June 17. The total number of operating rigs exploring for oil has declined by 106 since Jan. 4. The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of energy-related steel […]