Oil prices spiked by nearly 20 percent Monday on the news that a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities had knocked out more than 5 percent of the global oil supply. Prices corrected back down by about 6 percent today following reports that Saudi production would recover more quickly than originally anticipated. The Wall […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised economists by slipping to 2.0 on the general business index, a three point decline from August. The new orders index fell three points to 3.5, but remained above zero indicating only slight growth. The shipments index declined four points to 5.8 for it lowest level in nearly three years. […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index saw a slight uptick this week, but not one big enough to indicate a significant change of direction. Industry sentiment has trended downward for much of the year and has been stuck in a mediocre range for the last few months over concerns about demand and pricing. Buyers’ […]
The pendulum appears to have swung back in buyers’ favor as service centers and OEMs report most mills willing to negotiate to secure spot orders of all types of steel products. In the hot rolled segment, 82 percent of respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week said the mills were open to […]
Mill lead times saw a small uptick following the mill price increases announced in late June and July, but have since reverted back to relatively short levels. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The shorter the lead time, the less busy the mills, and the more likely […]
The rate of job creation in August slowed to 130,000 and was helped by the addition of 25,000 temporary Census workers, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in August declined to 130,000 from a downwardly revised 159,000 in July. June was revised […]
Job creation in August was disappointing even after being boosted by the addition of thousands of temporary Census workers. In August, 3,000 jobs were created in manufacturing industries and 14,000 in construction activities. A reported 96,000 jobs were created in the private sector and government gained 34,000 positions. The federal government employment result was swelled […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, declined this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 6 to 898, with oil rigs down 4, gas rigs down 2, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged. Compared to this time last year, the […]
Steel Market Update is making adjustments to our Price Momentum Indicators on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The pressure behind rising steel prices seems to be subsiding as lead times at most mills are reasonable (especially considering the maintenance schedules in place for September and October). Steel buyers are beginning to tell […]
Despite slight upward momentum in steel pricing in August, steel buyers’ sentiment languished in the +40s on SMU’s index. This tepid optimism likely reflects widespread concerns in the market about steel demand in the second half and the staying power of steel prices following the recent increases announced by the mills. The average price for […]
This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator, therefore we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in August was 135.1 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 131.7. June’s result of 124.3 now appears to be an outlier […]
World steel production is down this year. Between May and July, global steel production declined by 4.1 percent. For the year, steel output is down by 0.9 percent, excluding China which continues to overproduce. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion metric tons and capacity utilization in July was 79.0 percent, according to the latest […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 49.1 percent in August from 51.2 percent in July indicating a contraction in business activity and the lowest level since the 48.0 percent reading in January 2016. “Comments from the panel reflect a notable decrease in business confidence,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management […]
The global manufacturing sector downturn continued to worsen in August. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted a 49.5 for its fourth month of contraction. More than half of the nations surveyed by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit had PMI readings below the neutral 50 mark last month, with Germany and the Czech Republic declining at the […]
The metalforming sector continues to express uncertainty about near-term business conditions, according to the August 2019 Precision Metalforming Association Business Conditions Report. The August report shows that 27 percent of participants anticipate an improvement in economic activity during the next three months (an increase from just 16 percent in July), 46 percent expect no change […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rose six points in August after two months of contraction. The Index posted a 50.4 last month, compared to 44.4 in July. MNI Indicators still sees an overall softening in business conditions despite the gains in August. The three-month moving average, a better indicator of conditions, fell to 48.2 Supplier deliveries […]
Don’t get too worried about a recession just yet, advised ITR economist Alan Beaulieu at the SMU 2019 Steel Summit in Atlanta this week. The economy is slowing down and consumption will be tepid for the rest of this year and into the first half of 2020. But conditions will improve in the second half […]
Oil production in the U.S. set another all-time record in May (latest data available) and the forecast for the rest of 2019 and 2020 is a continuation of this trend. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., exceeded $60 per barrel for one day on July 10 before falling back to […]
U.S. gross domestic product had positive growth in every region of the country in all four quarters of 2018 and in Q1 2019, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week, the data […]
Orders for durable goods increased for a second month, gaining 2.1 percent in July, according the latest data from the Commerce Department. Transportation again led the gain with a surge of 47.8 percent for aircraft and parts. Excluding the volatile transportation category, durable goods orders were down 0.4 percent. Core capital goods, non-defense minus aircraft and […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index moved lower over the past two weeks as buyers appear concerned about the economy and steel demand. Steel prices remain a source of anxiety as the mills have been only partially successful at collecting their recent price increases. The goal of SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index is to measure […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, declined this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 19 to 916, with oil rigs down 16, gas rigs down 3, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged. Compared to this time last year, the […]
If the price increases announced by the mills over the past two months were gaining real traction, it should be showing up in lengthening mill lead times. According to Steel Market Update data, the impact on lead times has been mixed and minimal. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the […]
There has been little change in the tone of price talks over the past two weeks. The majority of buyers continue to report that mills generally are willing to negotiate to secure spot orders, even as they work to collect recent price increases on flat rolled and plate products. Since late June, the mills have […]
Material Sciences Corp. was named as one of five winners of the 2019 Altair Enlightment Award given to honor the greatest achievement in vehicle weight savings. MSC was honored for its MSC Smart Steel, a new multilayer steel laminate engineered as a direct substitute for low carbon steel stamped vehicle body parts. Offering a 20 […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, SMU has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled, then into four thickness ranges, and then identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. Through June 2019, of the total cold rolled sheet and strip imports into […]
The labor productivity of nonfarm businesses grew by 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The average of the last six quarters has been 0.40 percent. Unit labor costs increased 2.5 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity […]
The official economic statistics out of China showed a decline in industrial production in July. But in June, China’s share of global steel production was 55.1 percent. Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. We don’t know the accuracy of these numbers, […]
Our analysis of 11 manufacturing indicators suggests that growth is slowing and, if trends continue, will become negative in the fourth quarter. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market […]