The MNI Chicago Business Barometer gained 8 points in February, climbing to 64.7, its highest level since December 2017. The February spike in business activity followed a decline to 56.7 in January. New orders rose 15.2 points and production gained 8.5 points. Order backlogs lengthened after declining in January. Supplier delivery times declined for a […]
Oil production in the U.S. was at an all-time high in October last year and declined only slightly in the latest data for November. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has recovered somewhat from its recent low of $44.48 on Dec. 27. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., […]
Flat rolled steel service centers are beginning to believe a change in spot pricing is necessary. We saw a precipitous decline in the percentage of distributors who were lowering their spot pricing to their customers compared to a couple of weeks ago. One of the proprietary indices created by Steel Market Update is our Service […]
Industry sentiment remains well below levels of a year ago, as measured by Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. While still at a healthy level and solidly within the optimistic range, sentiment is clearly being tempered by the many market uncertainties. Now that it appears steel prices have hit bottom and may be on […]
The secondary steel business is shrinking. Not only are quality-conscious mills producing fewer nonprime coils, there are fewer distributors in the business of buying them and fewer customers interested in using them. Steel Market Update interviewed several veterans of the secondary steel market, who all agreed the business is changing—and not always for the better. […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, decreased this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 4 to 1,047, with oil rigs down 4 and gas rigs unchanged. Compared to this time last year, the 1,047 count is up […]
This morning, Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled from Neutral to Higher. Our Price Momentum Indicator was last adjusted on Jan. 28, 2019, when we moved from Lower to Neutral as the domestic steel mills, led by Nucor, began announcing price increases. It is normal for SMU to adjust our […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel continue to inch out as market momentum shifts toward strengthening steel prices. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the mills. The busier the mills, the less likely they are to […]
With steel prices in transition following last month’s price increase announcement from the major mills, the tone of negotiations between producers and buyers appears mixed. The majority of buyers report the mills are still willing to talk price on all products but plate, but fewer in the high-demand categories of hot rolled and galvanized. Most […]
Like the prime steel market, secondary steel is suffering from indecisiveness among buyers who feel uncertain about tariffs and trade and their effects on the economy. Secondary steel is nonprime or excess material that did not meet the specifications for its original intended use. Mills offer the material at a discount to service centers, who […]
A delayed report on manufactured durable goods showed new orders increased 1.2 percent in December, due mostly to orders for transportation. Excluding transportation, new orders rose just 0.1 percent. Orders for core capital goods, which exclude defense and aircraft and are considered a measure of business investment, dropped unexpectedly by 0.7 percent after a downward […]
The domestic steel mills have been able to put a floor on flat rolled steel prices since Nucor announced their $40 per ton price increase on Jan. 28, 2019. Now that they have a firm floor, the mills are slowly moving prices higher. In the process, they are very slowly shifting momentum. Steel Market Update […]
Economic indicators of manufacturing activity are strong, though the growth rate is slowing. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief in this […]
The following statement was extracted from the Federal Reserve website: “Effective on Feb. 4, 2019, the Federal Reserve Board staff has made major changes to the methodology used to construct the trade-weighted dollar indexes in the H.10, G.5, and G.5A releases. These changes affect the calculation of index weights and country composition. The new dollar […]
SMU has updated the steel capacity chart that was published on Thursday to reflect new information obtained and to correct some errors regarding tonnage (metric to net tons). Here is the revised chart. If you know of any new steel capacity coming on line, please let us know and we will continue to update the […]
Manufacturers in New York State report that business activity improved in February. The general business index of The Empire State Manufacturing survey rose five points to post 8.8 after falling the previous two months. Indexes for new orders and shipments remained strong in February. The index for new orders climbed four points to 7.5, while […]
Steel Market Update asked: Will the newly announced flat rolled price increase “stick” and be collected? Maybe not, said most respondents to SMU’s market trends questionnaire last week, but it will at least stop the slide. Looking at the data, very few expect the mills to collect the full $40 per ton increase they announced […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen little change since the beginning of the year as the market seeks a sense of direction. While still well within the “optimistic” range, the index has been on a downward trajectory for months. SMU is consistantly seeing both our Current Sentiment Index as well as our […]
Flat rolled steel distributors have been slowly backing away from offering spot prices to their end customers at lower numbers than what was seen a couple of weeks ago. At the same time, these same service centers are reporting difficulties getting those same end user customers to pay higher prices, despite the price increase announcements […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, increased this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs rose by 4 to 1,049, with oil rigs up 7 and gas rigs down 3. Compared to this time last year, the 1,049 count is […]
Employment gains were unexpectedly strong in January. The January employment release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) included huge historical revisions. We re-entered our data back to January 2010, but found that revisions extended even further back in time. Net job creation in January as reported by the BLS on Friday was 303,000, […]
Construction is pulling ahead of manufacturing as a job creator, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. In January, 296,000 jobs were created in the private sector and 8,000 in government. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees work […]
Now in the second month of the new year, shortly after the mills announced a $40 price increase, price negotiations appear to be tightening up a very small bit. Buyers generally report that the mills are still willing to talk price on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and to a lesser degree Galvalume. On the […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have extended slightly in the past few weeks, lending support to those who believe the market is near the bottom. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. The longer the lead time, the busier the mills. The busier […]
The State of the Union speech on Tuesday brought renewed calls from industry associations for increases in federal infrastructure spending. President Trump’s reference to the subject was cursory at best, but provided hope that Congress can agree on a bipartisan bill in 2019. “Both parties should be able to unite for a great rebuilding of […]
By CRU North America Steel Analyst Ryan McKinley Since Section 232 tariffs have come into force, U.S. wire rod prices have increased more than other markets. As a result, domestic PC strand (prestressed concrete steel strand) producers have seen costs increase, inviting more competition from abroad. Higher Prices Affecting Competitiveness Rising U.S. domestic wire rod […]
U.S. Steel Corp. plans to restart the No. 1 Electric-Weld Pipe Mill at its Lone Star Tubular Operations—a mill that had been “permanently” idled in 2016 due to the challenging conditions for tubular products created by fluctuating oil prices, reduced rig counts and high levels of imports. “We are encouraged by an improvement in market […]
Global manufacturing is approaching the stagnation point, says a new survey by J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell for the ninth month in January to register 50.7, its lowest reading since August 2016. Trade tension originating with the U.S. was a common theme throughout the IHS Markit PMI reports […]
The Association of Steel Distributors has selected Andrew (Andy) Gross as its 2018 Steel Executive of the Year. Gross is president and CEO of Alliance Steel, Bedford Park, Ill. A long-time member of ASD, Gross has served as president and chairman of the service center trade group since 2017. He is also a member of […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The partial U.S. government shutdown, which began on Dec. 22, 2018, lasted 35 days and is the longest shutdown in U.S. history. President Trump decided to re-open the government until Feb. 15 to allow time for additional negotiations regarding the border security issues. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that […]